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000
FXUS64 KFWD 120443
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Moving Into The Weekend/

A persistent mid level ridge and rapid return to breezy southerly
winds this afternoon will result in a warm up, with even warmer
temperatures and stronger southerly winds on Saturday. The gradual
onset of warm advection and increase of low level moisture are
expected to be the eventual primer for the next strong storm
system Monday (discussed in more in detail in the long term
discussion). A few nebulous mid level impulses will traverse the
stagnant upper ridge in place, however this will result in only
periods of cirrus traversing the area as the environment below
500mb will be extremely dry.

Both low and high temperatures will be on the upswing the next 48
hours. Lows primarily in the 50s will prevail by sunrise Saturday
morning, while high temperatures both days range between the mid
70s to the mid 80s. The warmest temperatures are expected to occur
across the higher terrain of the Big Country and far western
Central Texas, as these areas will be in the vicinity of the
warmest 925mb and 850mb temperature. After near calm winds this
morning, look for southerly winds between 10 and 20 mph to return
this afternoon and remain between 10 to 15 mph tonight. Southerly
winds will be even stronger with gusts to between 30 and 35 mph on
Saturday which will be just below Wind Advisory criteria.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Warm, slightly breezy, and rain-free conditions this weekend will be
followed by the next threat for severe weather Monday as we enter
the latter half of the month. The threat is highest across the
northwest as we`ll be contending with convection off of a Pacific
front/dryline, but will likely spread further into North and Central
Texas as the evening progresses. All modes of severe weather remain
possible at this time.

Saturday and Sunday will be fairly warm with highs in the 80s each
day. Locations west of U.S. 281 in the Big Country have a ~60-90%
chance of topping 90 degrees Sunday which is around 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. Although south winds will be established at the
surface, moisture will be slow to return for much of the weekend
which should result in pleasant, albeit warm conditions.

Moisture return will then increase late Sunday and Sunday night
with a wide swath of mid 60s dewpoints expected across the region
as low level flow strengthens. Height falls will then overspread
the area by early afternoon Monday as strong lee cyclogenesis
occurs across the Central Plains thanks to the approaching upper
level trough as it exits the Four Corners. This will set the stage
for strong to severe thunderstorms to initiate along a dryline to
the west, then translate eastward through the afternoon and into
the overnight hours. It`s still uncertain at this point if any
warm sector convection will be able to develop in our area prior
to this main activity along the dryline reaching North & Central
Texas, but we should remain capped for much of the day which will
greatly limit this potential. Timing inconsistencies will
influence how far west this initial convection develops, and thus
impact when/where exactly the severe threat ramps up in North &
Central TX.

After this main system shifts east, additional disturbances and
lingering moisture will result in an unsettled pattern again in the
mid to late week, with storm chances returning to the area late
Wednesday. Otherwise, warm temperatures will continue through the
period with highs approaching the 90s areawide by midweek.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

No concerns. VFR with some passing cirrus this afternoon through
tonight.

Otherwise, variable winds 5 kts or less will become southerly and
increase to near 15 kts, with a few gusts > 20 kts by midday and
through the afternoon hours.

Sustained southerly winds between 10 to 15 kts continue tonight,
as the pressure gradient tightens and with warmer temperatures in
the 1000-925mb layer.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  80  58  82  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                48  77  56  77  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               45  77  54  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              47  78  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            48  78  58  81  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              53  79  59  81  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             48  77  55  79  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           50  78  55  80  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  78  56  77  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  82  56  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$