291
FXUS64 KFWD 120025 AAD
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
725 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Very light showers/rain and/or sprinkles is overspreading much of
North Texas and far northern Central Texas at this time. I raised
PoPs to likely chances (60%-70%), though some of this should wane
a little later in the evening for those with outdoor evening
events. There is an isolated chance of an embedded, weak tstorm,
so slight chance wording of thunder with the likely showers seems
the way to best handle the evolving weather at this time.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
Update:

As noted below, a Flood Watch remains in effect mainly along and
south of I-20, though eastern parts of the DFW Metro (namely
Dallas, Rockwall, and Kaufman counties are IN the watch, while
Tarrant and points west through north are NOT.

Outside of a fast-moving, rogue elevated storm move rapidly east
toward I-35 south of Waco, the aforementioned discussions below
handle weather features and timing well.

Tonight we`re looking at mainly spotty light rain or sprinkles,
with an embedded heavier shower possible elsewhere through much of
the night. A rogue rumble of thunder remains possible. More
widespread tstorms and periodic heavy rainfall will ramp up toward
first light Sunday and continue through Sunday evening.

I did warm low temperatures slightly for all but the northern tier
counties  and lower highs for all but the far southern counties
on Sunday with a warm front forecast to nudge up into these areas.
El Nino continues it`s strong grip this Spring across North-
Central Texas.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
Update:
After some brief morning convection we will be in a bit of a lull
until late this afternoon when some scattered showers and a few
storms are expected. Our confidence is high that widespread rain
and thunderstorms will develop on Sunday which will likely result
in some flooding concerns. We will issue a Flood Watch for
locations generally south of I-20. The watch will include Dallas
County but not Tarrant. However, adjustments to the watch may be
necessary with later forecasts. The Flood Watch valid time will
be from 7 AM Sunday until 1 PM Monday.

79

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Monday night/

The axis of a mid-level ridge will move east of the region today
in response to an approaching shortwave currently rotating near
the Four Corners region. Middle and upper level clouds will
increase across the region as Pacific moisture is pulled into
the lifting shortwave. Some light showers and isolated storms
have already developed across the western zones this morning but
rainfall has been light due to the layer of dry air generally
below 700 mb. This sub-cloud layer will slowly moisten through the
afternoon resulting in more rain reaching the ground. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible due to sufficient mid-level
instability as shown in the 12Z KFWD sounding, but lightning will
be the only notable hazard. The increase in cloud cover will keep
afternoon highs generally in the 70s but a few spots may briefly
reach 80.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
night with broad large scale ascent in place. Lift will be maximized
on Sunday with the core of the shortwave moving towards the Central
Plains and a warm front lifting slowly northward through the
Southern Plains. Ample moisture will be in place when the lift
arrives, with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
across the CWA. PWs closer to 2 inches will be common across
Central Texas and this is where some rainfall amounts will exceed
2 inches. Many of these areas saw heavy rainfall and flooding
this past week and it won`t take much to cause more flooding
problems. We are likely going to need a Flood Watch for some
locations generally south of the I-20 corridor so we will be
working with surrounding offices and hydrologists through the
afternoon to define the watch area and issuing one with the
afternoon package. The bulk of the rain will gradually shift
northeast through the afternoon Sunday with the lifting warm front
but additional thunderstorms are expected Sunday night through
Monday along and ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms will
be strong to severe with a threat for hail and gusty winds. Storm
chances will end from northwest to southeast Monday night with the
passage of the cold front.

Extensive cloud cover and rain-cooled air will keep highs Sunday
generally in the lower and middle 70s. Lingering clouds Sunday
night will keep temperatures from falling substantially with
mainly middle and upper 60s. Decreasing clouds behind the cold
front Monday will offset weak cold air advection, allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to the middle 80s.
Temperatures Monday night will be cooler ranging from the middle
50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 203 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

Brief ridging aloft and weak advection of slightly cooler and
drier air will result in a pleasant day on Tuesday with plenty of
sun and highs in the lower and middle 80s. The ridge axis will
shift to the east Tuesday night as yet another low pressure
organizes across the Desert Southwest. Energy from this system
will not arrive in North and Central Texas until Wednesday
afternoon. The initial convection will form across West Texas on
the dryline during the afternoon. This activity will move
eastward through Thursday with the passing shortwave. Based on
the pattern, it does appear that some strong to severe storms will
be possible along with a potential for more flooding in some
locations. More details about the severe weather/flooding threat
will become more clear in the coming days. The passage of the
shortwave will allow a cold front to move through the region
Thursday night/Friday morning, bringing a temporary end to the
precipitation. Right now it appears the weekend will be rain-free
for forecast area with most of the precipitation  staying near
the cold front across the Texas Coast.

Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be seasonably warm
overall with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. It does look
like temperatures will creep into the lower 90s across some of the
western counties on Saturday.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 652 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024/
/00z TAFs/

Numerous challenges regarding timing/deterioration of cigs and
impending weather across the entire D10 beginning 08z-10z and
through the day Sunday. VFR with spotty light rain or showers are
anticipated through that time, with cigs eventually lowering into
the low VFR BLO 040 after 06z as top-down saturation occurs with
the increasing lift late tonight.

A brief period of -SHRA with the increasing low level WAA
overnight is expected with MVFR cigs as we move through 12z
Sunday, with IFR prevailing by not later than 16z with cigs
AoA 006. Light E winds BLO 10 kts will slowly become SE and
increase to between 10-15 kts by mid morning with a gusts between
20-25 kts...locally higher and more variable in direction in/near
any heavier rainfall and/or strong TSRA.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  72  67  85  64 /  60 100  60  20   5
Waco                67  74  69  84  63 /  50 100  50  20   5
Paris               62  73  64  82  62 /  20 100  80  30  10
Denton              63  71  65  84  60 /  70 100  60  10   5
McKinney            64  72  65  83  62 /  60 100  70  20   5
Dallas              67  72  67  85  64 /  60 100  60  20   5
Terrell             64  72  67  84  62 /  40 100  70  30   5
Corsicana           67  73  70  85  64 /  30 100  60  30   5
Temple              67  78  70  85  62 /  50 100  50  30   5
Mineral Wells       63  72  65  85  59 /  60 100  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Monday afternoon for
TXZ119>122-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$