Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS63 KGID 211705
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1205 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 50s and 60s today, with low (15-45%) chances for
  light rain tonight northeast of the Tri-Cities.

- A system will move into the area this weekend bringing
  widespread chances for precipitation (40-80%), with rain,
  thunderstorms and snow all possible.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on
  Sunday for southern portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Today and Tonight...

An approaching shortwave aloft and associated surface low over the
Rockies will allow for southerly flow to return to the area today.
Highs today will climb into the 50s and into the 60s for western and
southern portions of the area. Winds will be breezy this morning
with gusts of 20 to 25 mph as the winds shift from the east-
southeast to the south. Winds will lighten some this afternoon,
along with clearing skies.

A cold front will move through the area overnight, bringing breezy
northerly winds and chances (15-45%) for precipitation to northern
and eastern portions of the area. Most if not all of the forecast
area will remain dry, however areas northeast of the Tri-Cities have
the highest chances to see a few hundredths of rain. Any rain should
come to an end before sunrise on Friday.

Friday...

Friday will be cooler behind the cold frontal passage, with highs in
the upper 40s to upper 50s. Winds will be the strongest Friday
morning, with northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts around 30
mph. Winds will decrease during the afternoon and evening hours,
becoming lighter overnight. Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s
Friday night.


Saturday through Tuesday Morning...

An approaching trough over the west coast will bring the next chance
for precipitation to the area, with rain, thunderstorms and snow
possible.

Chances for precipitation (15-25%) have continued to decrease for
Saturday morning, with the best chances now north of the forecast
area. Light snow still remains possible Saturday morning, however
any accumulations look to remain light. Any snow will transition to
rain Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm across the area. The
best chances for precipitation during the day on Saturday will be
for areas along and east of Highway 281.

Chances for rain become more widespread Saturday night (40-80%) as
the low begins to emerge over the plains. As the warm sector moves
over the area Saturday night, thunderstorm chances will increase.
Overall chances for precipitation (60-80%) are highest for the area
on Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms possible throughout the
day on Sunday. While instability will be low, with only a few
hundred J/Kg available, shear will be strong enough to allow
for severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening
ahead of the cold frontal passage. The SPC includes areas
roughly along and south of Highway 136 in a slight risk in their
day 4 outlook. Sunday afternoon and evening will continue to be
monitored closely over the coming days to determine the timing
and evolution of any severe weather.

A cold front will makes its way across the area Sunday night,
bringing cooler air and chances for snow to the area. Snow chances
(30-60%) currently continue throughout the day on Monday, coming to
an end by Tuesday morning. There remains uncertainty on the
departure of the system, which would impact snow accumulations
across the area. The GFS and it`s ensembles continue to be more
progressive, with any snow coming to an end Monday afternoon. The
ECMWF and it`s ensembles are slower, and have snow chances lingering
into Tuesday morning. Regardless of the exact evolution, both the
GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles both indicate the highest chances
for snow are for areas northwest of the Tri-Cities (Along a
Lexington to Ord line). Confidence in rain and snow
accumulations will increase over the coming days as details
become clearer.


Tuesday Through Thursday...

Weather will be cooler and dry behind the departing system, with
highs in the 40s on Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually warm as a
ridge begins to build over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A SFC low will move out of WY today which will drag a cold front
through the TAF sites overnight. Looking at skew-t`s for
tonight, decided to drop the SFC winds as the front approaches.
A LLJ is forecast out ahead of the SFC low so decided to put a
mention for some LLWS in the TAF for a few hours. The stratus
over the TAF sites this afternoon should scatter out/move
through later this afternoon. The winds tomorrow morning will
pickup behind the front and expect gusts into the low 30s.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Beda


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.