988
FXUS63 KGID 092334
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- below-normal precipitation totals are favored through the
  next 1-2 weeks.

- Only spotty showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm are
  expected through this evening. Nearly the entire area will
  stay dry.

- Better chances for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. The threat
  for severe weather appears to be fairly low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Visible satellite shows pretty extensive cumulus development
this afternoon, and the regional radar mosaic shows a few
returns over northern Nebraska gradually moving southward. These
isolated showers may reach northern portions of the area late
this afternoon before gradually diminishing in the evening with
loss of diurnal heating. There is enough instability (100J/kg)
for a rumble of thunder or two, but severe weather is not
expected. If anything, the latest runs of near-term models are
even less impressed with the coverage/intensity of this activity
reaching into our area. Nearly everyone will stay dry, and even
areas that do see rain likely will not see more than 0.05".

The pattern remains stagnant on Friday, with continued
northwesterly surface winds and temperatures only a few degrees
warmer than today. A cutoff upper low will remain stalled over
the western CONUS as another shortwave skirts by to our
northwest Friday evening. Another round of spotty showers cannot
be ruled out, but the probability/impact is too low to add
anything into the forecast at this point.

The daytime of Saturday will be warm, dry and pleasant, but the
aforementioned upper low will slowly begin to break down down
and eject into the central Plains late Saturday night into
Sunday. This will bring us a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially Sunday afternoon into the evening.
That said, deep-layer shear is expected to be quite limited, so
the overall threat for severe weather remains pretty low.
Highest rain totals favor portions of Kansas, but exact details
remain quite uncertain.

Some activity could redevelop as this system slowly departs the
area on Monday, and additional chances for rain and storms
arrive with another shortwave trough Tuesday into Wednesday.
Despite all of these rain chances, global ensembles all show
near to below-normal precipitation totals through the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Both TAF sites (KGRI/KEAR) are currently experiencing VFR
conditions. Current satellite shows some fair weather cumulus
across the area. Some scattered mid-level clouds to the north
will drift into the area over the next few hours. The gusty
northerly winds that have been ongoing this afternoon will be
backing down around 00Z, so did not include gusts in the initial
period in either TAF. Expect light northwesterly winds through
the night with gusts returning tomorrow afternoon. Some ceilings
may form tomorrow afternoon, but both TAF sites will remain in
VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Carothers