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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260459
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1059 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will shift to the NW and increase to 30-40 mph (gusting
  up to 50 mph) Friday afternoon. Wind of this magnitude may
  create hazardous travel conditions, especially for high
  profile vehicles. This includes the Interstate 70 corridor in
  eastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Radar and observational trends since 0330 UTC have indicated a
steady/persistent decline in updraft intensity and coverage. At
this point, severe weather is no longer anticipated. As a
result, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136 has been cancelled.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Severe weather is expected across the Tri-State area this afternoon
into the overnight hours. The dryline looks to be setting up near I-
70 and Highway 27. Locations to the southwest of the line are drying
out as southerly winds will continue gusting above 25 MPH. Later
this afternoon, RH values behind the dryline will drop into the
lower teens. This will create critical fire weather conditions for
locations behind the dryline. A Red Flag Warning is still in effect
for the locations where prolonged critical fire weather conditions
are expected.

Blowing dust will also be possible (~15% chance) in locations along
and south of a line from Idalia, CO to Oakley, KS. Along the Kansas
Colorado border will see the best conditions for blowing dust.
Visibility reductions down to around 3 miles are possible in plumes
of blowing dust. Brown-out conditions cannot be ruled out near
source regions.

The dryline will be the trigger for the severe weather in the
evening. SPC has kept an Enhanced risk in the southeastern 1/3 CWA
for Thursday afternoon-night. This is based on a hatched/significant
hazard for 30% chance of hail and 10% chance of tornado. For this
event, the environment will be highly primed for tornado and hail
hazards. There is still a 10% chance that the cap will prevent any
storms from firing, but confidence is lowing due to clearing skies.
If the cap does break, isolated discrete to clusters of severe
storms will form and all hazards will be possible becoming a mess of
storms later on. The main hazards will be tornadoes and hail. The
entire Tri-State area will have potential to see severe weather, but
chances increase in the Enhanced risk area.

Storms are expected to start firing around 19-21Z with the highlight
of the severe storms being 22Z-03Z. The prime location for the
severe storms will be in the Enhance risk area and the storms will
move to the northeast. After 03Z, the severe weather threat will
lower over the following 9 hours. During this time, we will begin to
get the wrap-around precipitation from the northwest. These are
expected to just be showers with a few weak thunderstorms embedded
within. Less than 0.5 inches of QPF is expected with this system
with most of that falling north of highway 36.

As the low pressure system leaves the area on Friday, strong
northwesterly winds are expected to follow. Gusts up to 40 kts are
already expected due to the pressure rises.

Temperatures overnight tonight will cool to the upper 40s. High
temperatures tomorrow will warm into the upper 60s and the southern
CWA reaching into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday evening, split flow will be in place over the western
have of the nation. A broad upper trough will extend west to
east from the West Coast to western Iowa and south into the
Desert Southwest. The northern split will cut north through the
Bighorn Mountains of Wyoming and up into Big Sky Country
(Montana). The southern split will be the main concern for the
Tri-State area a series of systems moves through the region over
the weekend. Friday evening, a closed low will continue to lift
to the northeast, up into north central Nebraska and the East
River portion (East of the Missouri River) of South Dakota. As
this system moves out of the region, expect wrap around moisture
on the back side of the system. For the evening/overnight
hours, precipitation chances (20-40%) will be limited to areas
mainly along and west of Highway 27.

The concern over strong to severe thunderstorms across the Tri-
State area remains for Saturday. A second low pressure system
north of the Four Corners region will move into eastern Colorado
and western Kansas during the day on Saturday. Precipitation
chances will increase west to east across the region, with rain
chances likely, in the afternoon and evening, particularly in
eastern Colorado and areas along and north of Interstate 70.

As far as the severe weather threat for Saturday, a few strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible for the CWA in the
afternoon. A boundary will be set up from southwestern Kansas to
northeastern Kansas. This boundary will cut across the
southeastern portions of the CWA, with a dryline extending south
into Oklahoma and Texas. CAMs are showing potential for some
storms firing up along the boundary and moving to the north
through the CWA as the low tracks to the north northeast through
the day. Models are already showing possibility of SBCAPE
values of over 1000 J/kg and MLCAPE values of over 1200 J/kg in
the area along the boundary as it lifts north into the area. A
jet streak will also be moving over the region during the day on
Saturday. Right now, the worst threat looks to be to the
southeast of our area in the warm sector and ahead of the
dryline. A slight shift northward of the system`s expected track
could potentially bring additional concerns for severe weather
to the area. With all of that being said, I wish everyone in the
path of severe weather the next few days, Qapla` (good luck or
success).

Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon, chances for
precipitation will gradually decrease from south to north. The
other concern with this system will be the potential rainfall
amounts. The area has been fairly dry recently. However,
thunderstorms moving through the region today could bring a few
tenths of rainfall to the region. Paired with decent soundings
and QPF values nearing an inch in areas north of I-70, hydro
concerns may be an issue.

Westerly flow sets up Monday and Tuesday, with dry conditions
expected. Temperatures will return to the 70s and 80s on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Adverse aviation conditions associated with occasional
showers/storms, low ceilings and fog are anticipated at both
terminals overnight.. with the relative greatest potential for
thunderstorms at the MCK terminal. Ceilings will gradually
improve to MVFR and VFR late Friday morning and early Friday
afternoon. Low confidence in wind speed/direction overnight
(winds may largely be variable).. as a lee cyclone in Colorado
progresses eastward over western Kansas. Winds will shift to the
W around or shortly after sunrise Friday morning, further
shifting to the NW and strengthening to 30-40 knots Friday
afternoon (~20-30 knots at MCK).. as the MSLP gradient tightens
on the W and SW periphery of the deepening lee cyclone (tracking
northeastward into Nebraska during the day). Winds will weaken
AOA sunset Friday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Portions of the Tri State region could see some potentially
impactful precipitation from showers and thunderstorms over an
84- hour period starting today and going late into the upcoming
weekend. These chances will come in two rounds, one
Thursday/Thursday night and the other this weekend.
Precipitation amounts will be highly dependent on track and
movement and overall coverage.

Rainfall totals that are currently forecasted during this time
have around a half inch or less south and east of a line from
Hill City to Colby, Kansas and southwest to the Tribune area.
North and west of this line, up to 0.80" to a localized 1.60" is
possible. The highest totals are currently focused west of a
line from Burlington Colorado to McCook Nebraska.

Area soils are pretty dry at this time and should be able to
handle around 1 to 2 inch rainfall, but will have to be
monitored for potential for any training of storms in localized
areas, especially for areas that may have seen a lot of rain
today/tonight and may see more storms over the weekend.

There are currently no Flood Watches in effect.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...Vincent
HYDROLOGY...JN