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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170118
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
718 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief period of near critical to critical fire weather
  conditions is anticipated south of Interstate 70 Wednesday
  afternoon, mainly in Cheyenne County (CO) and Wallace/Greeley
  counties (KS).

- Scattered light rain showers through the end of the week, but
  may mix with or change to snow showers by Friday night and
  Saturday with cooler temperatures. Some light accumulations
  possible, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Strong NNW-NW winds have rapidly weakened since ~5 pm MDT. Winds
will further decrease after sunset.. becoming light and
variable overnight. The High Wind Warning and Blowing Dust
advisory expired at 7 pm MDT / 01 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Strong northwest winds continue across the area this afternoon
on the backside of the deep cut off low lifting into Nebraska.
The winds will continue through this afternoon, as well as the
patchy blowing dust, then rapidly diminish this evening as the
boundary layer decouples and the upper low continues moving
away. Tonight will see clear skies with lows ranging from the
lower 30s in northeast Colorado to the lower 40s in north
central Kansas.

On Wednesday will transition to a zonal flow aloft. A cold front
will be approaching southwest Nebraska late in the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s
to lower 80s across the area. Southwesterly winds are forecast
for the southwestern counties (south of Interstate 70 and west
of Highway 25), which will result in afternoon relative humidity
minimums of 15% or lower. HREF probabilities are around 30-50%
for wind gusts of 25 mph or greater in the same areas.
Considered a Fire Weather Watch for those areas but could not
get a consensus with other offices, so will hold off for now.
Cold front will move through 00-06z for the entire area with
winds shifting to the north and gusting 30-40 mph through the
rest of the night. May see a few showers north of Interstate 70
behind the front with the upper wave, but looking at only a few
hundredths of measurable precipitation. Can`t completely rule
out a change over to light snow showers in far northern Yuma
County, Colorado, or southwest Nebraska, but not expecting any
accumulation. Low temperatures will be in the 30s to around 40.

Thursday will start cool, cloudy and breezy with a few lingering
morning showers, then some partial sun and dry conditions in the
afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s. For Thursday night, will
see another weak wave move out of Colorado in the zonal flow.
It will bring another chance for light rain and snow showers,
mainly north of Interstate 70, but once again expecting only a
few hundredths of measurable precipitation. Low temperatures
will be in the 30s, with lower 30s in northeast Colorado where
the light rain may mix with or change to snow, with no
accumulation expected.

Friday will see the chance for light showers continue in areas
north of Interstate 70 as the upper shortwave sharpens up and
slowly moves through. It will be mostly cloudy and cool with
highs in the 50s and east to southeast winds around 15 mph.
Precipitation chances increase through Friday night with a more
substantial shortwave trough moving in from the northwest.
Temperatures will cool into the upper 20s to lower 30s allowing
rain to change to or mix with snow. Some minor accumulations on
grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Unsettled conditions continue on Saturday as the upper flow
turns northwest as the shortwave trough digs into the central
plains. Models suggesting a wet, slushy snow through the day on
Saturday. However, with temperatures in the upper 40s for highs
accumulations will likely be limited to grassy and elevated
surfaces. Precipitation winds down fairly quickly Saturday
evening with lows in the upper 20s.

On Sunday and Monday...northwest flow will be over central
plains with a ridge slowly building from the west. Precipitation
chances will be very limited, with only the ECMWF showing some
spotty showers associated with embedded weak waves, while the
GFS has more ridging and is dry. Temperatures will be warming
back into the 70s both days with lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

As of 545 pm MDT, strong NNW-NW winds have already begun to
weaken. Winds will further weaken/decline after sunset..
becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will shift to the S
and increase to 10-15 knots by early Wed afternoon.. further
increasing to 15-25 knots during the mid-late afternoon.

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period
at both terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent