Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
302 FXUS63 KGLD 010749 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 149 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A marginal to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms continues for the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated storms possible in the afternoon east of Highway 83 in northwest Kansas where large hail, damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado will be possible. Storms will become more widespread Wednesday night with large hail and locally heavy rainfall becoming the primary hazards. - Severe storms possible next Monday in eastern portions of the area. - Elevated to near critical fire weather possible Monday and Tuesday of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Cold front has moved out of the area this afternoon with gusty northwest winds in its wake. Those winds will gradually diminish through the late afternoon and early evening. Tonight, a weak wave embedded in the southwest flow aloft combined with low level upslope at the surface might result in a few isolated showers, mainly overnight, from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska. However, confidence is low and most models are dry. Low temperatures will be in the 40s. Clouds will increase Wednesday morning with moisture return from the southeast. By 18z expecting most if not the entire area to be socked in with low to mid level clouds with east to southeast winds. Weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft comes across in the afternoon with warm front likely south of the area. With persistent easterly winds north of the warm front, clouds may persist well into the afternoon. This will impact not only thunderstorm chances, but temperatures. Convective allowing models not in the best agreement on where storms will initiate. The HRRR has a couple of isolated supercells initiating after 21z near southeast corner of the area moving northeast, and additional develop towards 00z in northwest corner of the area near the secondary cold front. NAMnest on the other hand keeps the area in the cool, cloudy and capped all day with more of a stratiform light drizzle or light showers. The NAM does show plentiful elevated instability and shear, but never taps into it. The NAM keeps surface temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s all day in most of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, a solution that cannot be completely discounted. Given all the uncertainties, confidence in severe risk and temperatures is low. Wednesday night, upper heights continue to fall/cool with approach of main upper trough. Surface cold front will continue to plow southeast and should be through the forecast area by 06z. There will be a risk of severe storms during the evening with the stronger forcing. NAM finally shows elevated convection developing late in the evening which taps into MUCAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg and up to 3000 j/kg in eastern areas with deep layer shear of around 50 kts. The HRRR shows a similar environment during that time with elevated storms and a favorable combination of MUCAPE/shear that would suggest a risk for large hail. HREF shows lows probabilities of 6-hour rainfall amounts of greater than 1 inch at 06z across mainly southwest Nebraska, which is consistent with the HRRR which shows 1-2 inch amounts along the Kansas/Nebraska border area and the NAM which shows a bullseye of around 1 inch in the same general area. Storms will be moving at a fairly decent clip of 10-20 kts, so appears to be more of a heavy rain threat than flash flood threat. Storms continue to move east overnight, with perhaps a lingering risk for severe hail between 06-09z east of Highway 25, before moving out after 09z. Low temperatures will be in the 40s. After morning clouds, Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the 60s. Widely scattered light showers will be possible Thursday evening in western areas with a weak wave coming across in the zonal flow aloft. However, with no instability to work with and little moisture, impacts will be minimal. Lows Thursday night will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Zonal flow continues on Friday with another open wave coming out of Colorado in the afternoon. Convection should initiate on the higher terrain to the west with forecast SBCAPE values of less than 500 j/kg. Showers and isolated storms continue east into Friday night, possibly merging into a large area of light to occasionally moderate rain. GFS and ECMWF show 12-hour precipitation amounts by 12z Saturday morning of between a quarter and a half inch. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s and low temperatures will range from the low to mid 30s in northeast Colorado to the lower 40s in north central Kansas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 The area is under southwesterly flow aloft at the start of the long term period with low pressure centered over Saskatchewan/Manitoba on into Ontario, upper level ridging building across the western CONUS, and our next low pressure system coming into view off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a front is forecast to push through during the Friday afternoon-Friday evening timeframe. With this, expecting gusty southerly winds shifting northerly and shower/storm chances up to ~50-70% working in from the west with QPF ranging generally from a quarter to three-quarters of an inch, locally higher amounts possible. Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging will build back in with flow becoming briefly zonal before approach of the next system has flow returning southwesterly. A disturbance skirts south of the area, then east on Sunday, and with the low level southeasterly flow allowing for increased moisture into the area, at least expect to see some increased cloud cover but also some shower/thunderstorm chances (up to around 20-30%). Guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement with regards to timing/placement of the early week system. Latest deterministic guidance shows the upper low centered in vicinity of the Great Basin Sunday evening before crossing the Rockies throughout the day Monday within an upper level trough becoming negatively tilted. Still monitoring potential for multiple hazards with this system, including gusty southerly to southwesterly winds ahead of it and associated increased fire weather concerns/possible blowing dust concerns. Additionally will be looking at the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern portions Monday afternoon- evening where the dryline is forecast to set up with instability reaching around 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear values in the 50-70 knot range. A frontal passage will then sweep through the area, with gusty post-frontal winds into Tuesday. Again will be looking at potential for fire weather concerns. For temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the low-mid 70s Friday, mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday before warming into the 70 to low 80s thereafter. For low temperatures, the forecast calls for low- mid 30s to middle 40s Saturday morning, low-mid 40s Sunday morning, middle 40s to middle 50s Monday morning, and 40s Tuesday, Wednesday mornings. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1020 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through 16z. A northeast wind under 10kts at taf issuance will slowly veer to the east through sunrise. From 12z-16z, east-southeast winds slowly increase with gusts up to 30kts. From 17z-01z, east-southeast winds continue to produce gusts up to 25kts or so. The possibility remains that stratus will move over the terminal from the east-southeast, creating sub VFR cigs. The cigs may move off to the northeast or remain over the terminal so a period of cigs just above VFR level are included at this time. After 01z, winds back to the northeast and north, gusting up to 30kts. Stratus that may have moved northeast and away from the terminal will quickly move over the terminal causing sub VFR cigs through the end of the taf period. An approaching upper level trough will bring an increasing chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms to the terminal after about 02z. It is possible that severe thunderstorms could impact the terminal with the primary hazard being large hail. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through about 19z. A northeast wind under 10kts at taf issuance will slowly veer to the east at similar speeds through sunrise. From 15z-19z, east winds increase with gusts up to 25kts. From 20z-01z, east winds gusting up to 25, maybe 30kts continue with sub VFR clouds due to stratus reaching the terminal from the south. There could be a few rain showers as well around or over the terminal but confidence in that is low. After 02z, winds shift to the northeast with gusts up to 25kts. Sub VFR cigs continue along with some fog/mist. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible and similar to KGLD, severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail the primary hazard. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...99