519
FXUS61 KGYX 032318
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
718 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure near the coast will provide dry conditions through
Saturday, with increasing onshore flow this weekend. Thickening
clouds, cooler temperatures and rain showers are expected by
Sunday as the high drifts north. Clearing likely not coming
until Monday behind a passing cold front. Warmer and sunnier
conditions are expected into Tuesday, then more unsettled
weather returns around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7:15pm Update... No notable changes with this update as the
forecast remains on track. Updated temps and dew points based on
trends and the latest high res guidance this evening. Patchy
fog still looks on track tonight as only high cirrus filters
through, and moisture increases through the low levels.

Previous...

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a cu field over the region
along with some passing cirrus. There continues to be breaks in this
cloud cover though, which has allowed temperatures to warm into the
lower to middle 60s in most locations, although mainly in the 50s
along the coast due to weak onshore flow. It will continue to be a
dry afternoon and evening with temperatures cooling into the 50s
areawide.

A positively tilted h5 ridge axis will remain overhead tonight with
partly to mostly cloudy skies but continued dry conditions. Patchy
fog is possible overnight depending on cloud cover but the latest
HREF suggests this likely won`t bring visibilities below 1 mile in
most locations. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s across
the north to the lower and middle 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The mid-level ridge axis remains overhead on Saturday with sfc low
pressure over the Gulf of Maine. Partly sunny skies during the first
half of the day will likely become mostly cloudy by the afternoon as
a weak vorticity maximum crosses. Light and variable winds combined
with daytime heating will likely result in a seabreeze. Highs will
range from the lower to middle 60s across the interior with cooler
50s along the coast.

Surface high pressure will begin to retreat to the northeast
Saturday night but the h5 ridge axis will remain overhead. Other
than a stray shower over western NH towards dawn it will be another
dry night with patchy fog once again possible. Low temperatures will
primarily be into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: Unsettled weather expected for the second half of the
weekend as a cold front nears Sunday and passes Monday morning.
High pressure and warm temperatures arrive the latter part of
Monday, continuing into Tuesday. Additional unsettled weather is
expected mid to late week as broad low pressure moves into the
eastern Great Lakes.

Details: Onshore flow will be underway Sunday with mostly cloudy
skies. Skies will be more overcast to start the day across NH,
mainly as the area sees greater moisture advection ahead of
approaching cold front. There is some uncertainty on daytime
highs Sunday, mainly due to this onshore flow and increasing
cloud cover. Went on the cooler side of guidance for now, but
current forecast spread for high temps varies by 5 to 7 degrees
across much of the area.

Rain will arrive with the cold front in the evening, beginning
as showers and then more persistent rain overnight. Rainfall
amounts should remain around a quarter inch or less, but some
showers could enhance local amounts higher than this value. The
associated cold front begins to lose its deeper moisture as it
tracks into New England, as probabilities for greater
precipitation lie to the west.

Perhaps some remaining drizzle along the coast early Monday
morning, but drying across the CWA should be underway by mid
morning. NW breeze will also kick up to enhance drying through
the afternoon. Should this stay on track, temperatures will be
in for a rebound later in the day with highs in the 70s possible
for southern NH and into southern Maine`s interior. Tuesday
follows up as warm and dry, before another period of unsettled
weather for mid to late week. Current NBM PoPs are likely
overdone due to the wide spread of guidance solutions, and have
tried to emphasize this uncertainty by keeping just a chance of
rain to close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions will persist through much of
tonight, although pockets of MVFR to locally IFR restrictions
are possible late due to lower ceilings and FG. Mainly VFR
conditions are then likely after 15Z Saturday, although pockets
of MVFR are possible, especially at coastal TAF sites. Ceilings
will then gradually lower again Saturday night with potential
patchy fog. Light and variable winds tonight through Saturday
morning will become southeasterly later Saturday before becoming
light and variable again Saturday night. No LLWS is expected.

Long Term...MVFR skies start the day Sunday, perhaps lifting to
VFR in the afternoon. However, general trend will be back to
MVFR/IFR Sun night into Monday morning. Rain and fog may cause
vis restrictions overnight. Ceilings should improve to VFR at
all terminals into Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds
through at least Saturday night with high pressure over the
waters. Light and variable winds tonight will become
southeasterly on Saturday.

Long Term...Conditions should remain below SCA criteria through
Wednesday, but there may be periods of visibility restriction
Sunday and Sunday night in fog amid onshore flow. Winds increase
overnight as a cold front nears. The cold front will pass over
the waters Monday morning, bringing better vis conditions
through Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cornwell