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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251648
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

If you liked yesterday, you`re in luck for today. Persistent onshore
winds at the lower levels combined with an increasingly southwester-
ly flow aloft will help to maintain this warm and increasingly humid
airmass already in place across SE TX. With the potential for embed-
ded shortwave activity, ahead of the main longwave trough tracking E
from the Colorado Rockies, we could see some isolated showers pop up
across our western/northern CWA this afternoon. Rain chances will be
going up further tomorrow as the mid/upper trough finally begins its
trek into the Southern Plains...with the best POPs likely across our
northern CWA once again. This system should help to tighten the grad-
ient across the region starting today and especially tomorrow, which
will result in strengthening southerly winds and increasing moisture
levels. But, despite all of these features coming together tomorrow,
there is the matter of the strong cap already in place here. The SPC
Day 2 outlook does have the northern third of the the CWA (generally
along and north of a Columbus to Livingston line) in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms for tomorrow. This
could be mainly in response to the possibility of outflow boundaries
and/or the tail end of the more organized activity which is expected
further north of the CWA.

As for temperatures...highs today/tomorrow are going to in the lower
to mid 80s...with lows tonight/tomorrow night mostly in the lower 70s.
41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The boundary that approached the region on Friday will have
retreated back north by Saturday ending the showers and storms
threat temporarily. Saturday will be quite toasty as we see
continued moist southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly
flow aloft. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with
heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. The hot and humid conditions
will continue through at least the middle of next week. Overnight
lows will possibly be near record warmth with minimum
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

An upper level shortwave will move into the Southern Plains on
Sunday not only pushing that boundary closer to our region, but also
reinvigorate the showers and storms along the boundary. The Bryan-
College Station area could see precipitation start as early as
sunrise Sunday with all of SE Texas getting scattered showers or
storms by the afternoon. Areas north of Conroe will likely see the
highest coverage of storms as it will be closer to the stalled
boundary - but if that boundary moves further south then that
increased coverage will follow. Wherever the stalled boundary ends
up, it will remain there through Wednesday bringing daily rain
chances.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings will prevail throughout the day
with greater potential for lingering MVFR ceilings for southern
sites. Southeasterly winds will be on the gusty side as well with
sustained winds around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots
lasting into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings filter to back in
for all area sites in the early evening hours. The elevated winds
overnight is expected to inhibit fog development. MVFR ceilings
will linger into Friday afternoon as southerly winds become even
gustier with sustained winds approaching 20 knots and gusts near
25-30 knots. There is potential for shower development during the
late morning hours around CLL on Friday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The onshore flow will strengthen through the day today becoming
moderate to strong tonight through the next several days. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect this evening through Friday afternoon as
the winds increase to around 20kts with gusts to 25-30kt and wave
heights increase to 6 to 8ft. The Small Craft Advisory will likely
be extended into the weekend as the winds increase due to a
tightening pressure gradient to around 25kt with gusts to 35kt
possible. Wave heights peak to around 9 to 11ft Saturday into Sunday
morning. Conditions slowly improve late Sunday into Monday. The
persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong rip
currents Friday and through the weekend along with elevated tides.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  71  83  72 /  10  10  40  20
Houston (IAH)  83  71  84  73 /   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  71  78  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler