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000
FXUS64 KHGX 120739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
239 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

We`re starting off Friday on a chilly note with widespread
temperatures this morning ranging from the low to mid 50s with some
spots in the Piney Woods down in the upper 40s. Drier air remains in
place as surface high pressure remains overhead, but it will be
sliding eastward throughout the morning and eventually move far
enough east to allow for onshore flow to return. Drier air remains
in place this afternoon though and pairs with ridging aloft
returning. Fortunately, 850mb temperatures remain around 12-15°C, so
temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 70s to low
80s. Enough dry air remains in place tonight for another night with
low temperatures in the 50s (except along the coast). It is worth
noting that a few to scattered mid/upper level clouds will move in
from the west later today (and especially tonight) as an embedded
shortwave passes through the region. Might have some decent sunset
picture opportunities today!

On Saturday, 500mb heights will have risen to 586-590 dam by the
afternoon with ridging aloft still in place. As you can imagine,
this means that temperatures will be on an upward trend. Expect
widespread high temperatures in the low 80s. Also on Saturday,
surface low pressure will begin developing in the Northern Plains.
This will tighten the pressure gradient and allow for moisture to
further increase as dew points surge into the 60s going into late
Saturday. A 25-35 kt LLJ develops over Central Texas on early
Saturday morning and drifts over Southeast Texas on Saturday
afternoon. Southeasterly winds will subsequently be on the gusty
side, especially for those west of I-45. With dew points on the rise
going into Saturday night, don`t expect to see another night of
widespread 50s again. Low temperatures on Saturday night will only
bottom out in the low to mid 60s.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Persistent south to southeast winds will bring a warming trend along
with rising humidities to the area through this period (lows mainly
in the 60s/70s and highs mainly in the 80s). Partly to mostly cloudy
skies can be expected. Only relief could be some stray showers/storms
that might move across our very far northern counties late Monday night
through Tuesday in association with an eastward moving disturbance.
Current forecast has better/increasing rain chances for much of the
area beyond this forecast package (starting as early as late Thursday
night but more likely on Friday) when a cold front enters the area.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

SKC, light/VRB winds overnight. Winds become southeasterly in the
morning, staying around or below 10 knots through end of forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Onshore flow returns to the area today, strengthens over the weekend
and persists through much of the upcoming week. With the increase in
winds and building seas, periods of caution flags will likely be needed
(beginning late Saturday or Saturday night), and periods of advisories
are possible (beginning at the start of the week).

42

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Due to the rainfall from earlier this week and its subsequent
runoff, there are a few River Flood Warnings that remain in effect
as of early Friday morning. Most of these are along the Trinity
River. Menard Creek at Rye (RYET2) is currently in moderate flood
stage and is forecast to remain in flood stage through early
Saturday morning. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) is
currently in action stage, but is forecast to go into minor flood
stage later today. The Navasota River at Normangee (NGET2) is
currently in action stage and is forecast to go into flood stage
later this morning. The Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2) is forecast
to already be in minor flood stage, but has been underperforming its
forecast. We`ll continue to monitor the observations and will
provide an update later this morning. The Trinity River at Riverside
is on the rise, but is not forecast to reach minor flood stage till
early next week. There are multiple other gauges in action stage as
well along the San Jacinto, Brazos, and San Bernard Rivers.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  53  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  57  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  75  67  75  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$