Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
597 FXUS66 KHNX 102031 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 131 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue through Sunday. 2. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal for this time of year. 3. High temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals Monday through Friday. 4. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada and the northeastern portion of Kern County mountains and desert this afternoon and early evening. && .DISCUSSION...An upper low pressure center which retrograded westward is now centered over Inyo County just to the east of our CWFA. The proximity of this system has provided for enough instability and lift for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over the Sierra Nevada. WRF indicating LI`s of -4 to -2 DEG C and CAPES of 300 to 600 J/KG over much of the higher Sierra Nevada this afternoon so a few strong thunderstorms are not out of the question through early this evening for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Meanwhile, the ongoing warming trend continues across our area as temepratures are running 3 to 5 DEG F above yday at this time. As a result, maximum temperatures will likely top out in the lower 90s this afternoon across most of the San Joaquin Valley. The SREF is indicating that the low to our east will track eastward and away from our area tonight and Saturday as build into CA over the weekend. This will result in dry weather across our are on Satruday and Sunday with diurnal temperatures continuing to trend upward by a few degrees each day. By Sunday, most of the San Joaquin Valley is expected to top out in the mid 90s with maximum temperatures across our area running 8 to 12 DEG F above normal. Here is the PoE for of 95 DEG F on Sunday afternoon for select locations in the San Joaquin Valley. Fresno: 51% Hanford: 41% Lemoore: 41% Bakersfield: 36% Delano: 41% Madera: 36% Visalia: 36% Merced: 31% Porterville: 16% Reedley: 11% Ensemble means are showing a weak upper low approaching the central CA coast on Monday which might allow for a slight cooling trend to take place in the San Joaquin Valley on Monday and Tuesday as a onshore gradient strengthens and allows for some marine cooled air to push inland although temperatures will remain above normal. The proximity of this low might also provide for enough lift and instability for isolated thunderstorms near the Sierra crest on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The ridge is then progged to strengthen over the western CONUS between Wednesday and Friday resulting in above normal temperatures for our area with only minimal precipitation chances for the Sierra Nevada. && .AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Sierra Nevada thru 03Z Sat, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout the Central CA interior for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ public/aviation/fire wx...DAS idss...Molina weather.gov/hanford