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000
FXUS64 KHUN 101806
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
106 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 928 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall continues to move mainly to
the northeast across NE Mississippi this morning. Earlier in east
central Alabama, there was quite a bit of lightning and elevated
instability with that area of precipitation. Very little lightning
has been seen over the last 30 minutes.

There likely is some very weak elevated instability in northwestern
Alabama via meso-analysis and model data. Overall, expect this
area of heavy rainfall to continue to move more to the NE than
east. A rumble of thunder can`t be totally ruled out. This
activity will likely clip western portions of northwestern
Alabama with some heavier rainfall totals between 0.25 and 0.75
inches possible this morning.

RAP13 seem to have a good handle on the clearing seen in portions
of Cullman county further south into southern and central Alabama.
This model seems to hint that some of this clearing will edge
further northeastward this morning (in the past this meso-scale
model has done fairly well with cloud cover trends and is
initiating well). Thus, current NBM highs look reasonable with
highs reaching the 73 to 77 degree range near and east of the
I-65 corridor and lower 70s further west via warm air advection
and some insolation (especially east of the I-65 corridor). Near
80 degree highs look possible just to our south.

Southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph will increase later today to
between 15 and 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, as a surface low
currently over southeastern Lousiana deepens and move northeast
by most model prognosis. As the surface low moves NE or NNE later
this afternoon, it could drag a warm front into the area between 4
PM and 7 PM. Dewpoints could climb to between 65 and 70 degrees
if this occurs. Given that possibility and some insolation, models
guidance of 300 to 600 J/KG looks like a reasonable outcome if
this occurs. Shear along this warm front and helicity really
increase as it moves northeast into the area. Thus, it looks like
it could bring a round of strong to severe thunderstorms into
northwestern Alabama and towards Cullman county during that
timeframe. This area of storms in most guidance continues to move
NE and across the area during the early evening hours. Tornado and
damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Some
model guidance is hinting at elevated CAPE between 1000 and 1500
J/KG. If this develops, then large hail could be another possible
threat.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms could occur overnight,
as the surface low moves into western Kentucky or Tennessee as the
cold front associated with this system moves east across northern
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Flash flooding and river
flooding will have to be monitored tonight into the weekend. Would
expect the hail threat to diminish tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Runoff from these showers should have a number of area rivers and
streams rising into the bankfull stage over the next few days.
The lower rainfall amounts do help preclude issuance of a Flood
Watch at this time. If the heavier showers track further to the
north, this could change.

Otherwise, a large area of convection moving around the comma-head
of the NE bound storm will continue bringing showers and a few
thunderstorms to the Valley on Thu. A cooler airmass moving in
should result in high temperatures in the mid 60s. The showers
should taper off from south to north Thu evening. Colder air
filtering in will drop lows in the mid 40s. Under clear skies,
highs on Fri should warm into the mid/upper 60s. One more chilly
night Fri with lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

For those who are tired of the rain, the long term forecast will be a
relief to read. High pressure continues to influence the Tennessee
Valley through the start of the work week, allowing dry weather to
remain in place. During this time, highs are forecast to reach the
upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the 50s to 60s. Monday
night, low rain chances (20% or less) return to the forecast ahead
of an upper level trough forecast to form in the Plains and the
aforementioned sfc high pressure continues eastward off the coast of
the Carolinas. There is model disagreement on the evolution of this
trough axis, therefore, continued with blended model guidance for
PoPs at this time. This keeps low rain chances in portions of
northwest AL and southern middle Tennessee through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

CIGS will be alternating between MVFR and VFR conditions through
around 20Z at both terminals. Then expect a large area of -TSRA to
move into the terminals. This should be a predominate condition by
20Z at KMSL and 23Z at KHSV. A tempo group was included from 22Z
to 02Z at KMSL and from 23Z to 03Z at KHSV for TSRA. During this
tempo group, CIGS or VSBYS could drop to IFR criteria. Expect
some -TSRA could linger after 03Z before mainly light rain is
expected after 4Z. CIGS should remain MVFR and drop below 1000
feet after 4Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KTW