831
FXUS61 KILN 040145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
945 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the weekend along with muggy conditions. Additional thunderstorms
are possible into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A weak shortwave remains just upstream of the area, providing
just enough forcing for some slow-moving showers to persist this
evening. The flow through the troposphere is rather light, with
nothing above 25 knots until reaching about 400mb and higher.
The 00Z KILN sounding is nonetheless somewhat moist, with a
precipitable water value of 1.37 inches. This will make for a
mild night, with clouds and moisture keeping temperatures from
falling too much from their current values in the 60s. Lows in
the lower to mid 60s are expected.

There may be a very gradual downward trend in shower coverage
over the next few hours, but recent model runs do suggest some
additional development in the southern ILN CWA (particularly the
Cincinnati area) after 10Z. PoPs will thus be focused mainly on
the southern part of the area at around daybreak, before
precipitation is expected to become a little more widespread
with heating tomorrow afternoon.

Previous discussion >
Light shower activity may continue late this afternoon/early this
evening in the unsettled and weakly unstable environment across the
Ohio Valley. While a few thunderstorms cannot completely be ruled
out prior to sunset, persistent cloud cover and light rain earlier
today has kept instability to a minimum.

For the overnight, a weak cold front will attempt to drop in the
from the north before stalling over northern Ohio. At most, only
expecting a few degree temperature drop as some northeasterly flow
tries to develop. However, winds could end up mainly remaining light
and variable overnight since weak pressure gradient stays over the
region. Some shower chances persist tonight and forecast lows are
generally in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A weak stalled front is expected to lift north of the area on
Saturday. Warm, humid conditions will be in place as southerly flow
redevelops leading to highs near 80 during the afternoon.
Instability should accompany the muggy conditions Saturday
afternoon/evening bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
If a weak shortwave does end up moving through on Saturday, fairly
widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage could develop. Severe
chances remain low since shear is weak and DCAPE remains moderate to
low in the moist, saturated sounding. Locally heavy downpours are
likely since PWATs will be high. Additionally, brief gusty winds are
possible in the strongest storms in the this summer-like setup.

Shower/storm chances continue on Saturday night due to the possible
development of an upper level shortwave and the approach of a cold
front to the northwest. Brief, locally heavy rain remains the
biggest threat since instability and shear are weak. Southwesterly
winds persist along with warm and muggy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wet period is indicated as persistent moisture advection couples
with waves of low pressure. Relatively slow moving systems will
allow showers to linger, with brief dry interludes separating
batches of showers. Precipitable water remaining above an inch will
be feeding the showers.

For Sunday, the first wave of low pressure will be tracking to the
Great Lakes, resulting in widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms. Much the same can be expected for Monday, though most
showers may shift south, closer to a disturbance over the Southern
Appalachians. A relative lull in precipitation is forecast for
Tuesday as high pressure builds in between disturbances.

Two more potent waves of low pressure could impact the region on
Wednesday and Thursday. There should be a better chance for severe
thunderstorms as stronger winds enhance storm strength and
structure.  Showers and thunderstorms may linger on Friday as
another disturbance crosses the Appalachians.

Temperatures are likely to stay above normal through the long term,
with some fluctuation with respect to advection around weather
systems. Highs will generally be in the mid 70s to low 80s Sunday
through Thursday, before readings slip to the upper 60s to mid 70s
on Friday under a modest decrease in geopotential heights.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period,
but some brief MVFR ceilings or visibilities will be possible as
some rain showers continue to impact the area. There will be a
gradual diminishing trend in shower coverage over the next few
hours, with light winds settling into an ENE direction. By
morning, ceilings are expected to lower to the MVFR range, with
most TAF sites expected to go below 2kft. Some patchy MVFR
visibilities are also possible in the early morning hours, but
the thick cloud cover makes this somewhat uncertain.

Some additional showers will be possible in the morning, though
the chances are on the lower side, and this is not included in
the TAFs. However, showers will become more likely again
tomorrow afternoon, so all TAF sites have VCSH and then -SHRA.
Thunderstorms are not out of the question either. Prevailing
ceilings will lift to VFR by this time, with southeasterly flow
of 10 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day from
Sunday through Wednesday. MVFR conditions are possible Sunday
morning and Monday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hatzos