Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 181937
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
237 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Surface low has now moved into extreme east central Illinois near
Paris, and winds are picking up behind it. 2 pm observations
showing gusts to 42 mph in Taylorville and 41 mph in Effingham.
Wind advisory was issued earlier for the areas south of I-70 for
gusts to around 45 mph, and will need to monitor for any
northward expansion in the short term. Still looks like the
strongest of the winds will be through sunset, though gusts to 30
mph will linger much of the night over areas south of I-72.

Further north, aside from a few showers earlier, conditions have
been mostly dry today. As the upper low continues to slowly
move into northeast Iowa, an associated wave rotating around it is
pushing rain and snow showers southward toward the Missouri
border. Areas along and north of I-74 are most likely to be
impacted by precipitation this late afternoon through about
midnight, as the low opens up and starts to move quicker. Rain
will change to snow by about mid evening, with another dusting
possible on mainly grassy surfaces.

High pressure behind this system will result in a clearing trend
on Thursday. Temperatures will be below normal, but still reach
the 50-55 degree range.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Tonight`s snow should hopefully be the last we see of it for the
season (finally!), as dry conditions prevail through early next
week. By the time the next system arrives toward Tuesday, a
gradual warming trend will have taken place for several days, and
highs return to the 60s early next week.

A couple storm systems will be worth watching during this period.
The upper low currently off the northern California coast will
strengthen as it moves into the 4-corners region late this week.
Longer range model guidance is in good agreement with this
feature taking a more southeast track during the weekend, which
should keep us dry. Regarding early next week, there is less
agreement with an upper wave digging southward from central
Canada. The GFS is much more progressive, with the European
solution about 24 hours slower, and the Canadian solution cuts off
the low over the Plains. With no real confidence this far out,
will mainly keep PoP`s in the silent 20 range.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Surface low currently passing just south of KDEC, and MVFR
ceilings are spreading across central Illinois behind it.
Precipitation so far has been well to the north, but some periodic
rain/snow showers are expected from KPIA to KCMI later this
afternoon into the evening. This area is most likely to see any
IFR conditions from evening through overnight, but overall low
MVFR ceilings will prevail in central Illinois. Winds will quickly
shift around to the northwest this afternoon behind the low, with
some gusts up to 30-35 knots possible near KSPI/KDEC. Gusty winds
should continue through the night, before slowly diminishing along
with the clouds on Thursday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart



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