Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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193 FXUS63 KILX 080450 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1150 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong thunderstorms have redevelop east of I-55 this afternoon, with some possibly becoming severe with hail and tornadoes possible. - Wednesday afternoon severe event continues to show the highest probability for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes focusing along and south of the I-70 corridor. However, the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes is also possible between I-70 and I-72/Danville, with the probability is lower. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A severe threat will continue south of I-70 for the next hour or two but then will end for the remainder of the overnight hours. 02Z SPC mesoanalysis indicates a tight instability gradient is in place over SE Illinois with MLCAPE values quickly ramping up to around 3000-3500 J/kg. Very strong deep layer shear in excess of 60kts is also in place and supports the potential for a few stronger storms including supercells. Instability gradient is progged to sag south of the forecast area over the next couple hours and will end the threat for severe storms locally. Deubelbeiss && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Convection will be ongoing across eastern parts of the CWA by 4 pm. Some of the storms could be severe and the tornado watch has already been issued for areas east of I-55, including Mclean Co. Additional counties will likely be cleared before the main issuance of the forecast....by 4 pm. The boundary associated with these storms will quickly move east late this afternoon and by 7 pm most of the area will likely be out of any convection threat. Our far southeast counties will continue for a couple of hours in the early evening, then dry weather is expected through the night and early tomorrow morning. Another round of strong to severe convection is expected tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening as mid level troughing and southwest flow continues. Our CWA will remain on the northern edges of the threat area but large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will also be possible south of I-70. A smaller threat for severe weather also expected to the north of I-70 and south of I-72/Danville. After the precip tonight, lighter winds and clear skies will lead to some fog development. Patchy fog is possible across eastern IL, with areas of fog along and south of I-70. Temps will remain on the warmer side tonight and tomorrow but become slightly cooler tomorrow night. Auten .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 As the low pressure pulls away, an inverted trough will rotate through northern IL with showers across northern parts of the CWA. The mid level trough will also move through Thur night, but showers will have waned at that point. The CWA will remain in northwest type flow the remainder of the long term period...Friday through Tuesday. A few weak disturbances will move through the area during this period with only small chances of precip expected. Temps through the period will start off cooler with highs in the 60s Thur through Sunday. Warmer temps in the 70s will return for Mon and Tue. Auten && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions and light and variable winds are expected across central Illinois overnight. A warm front will lift into portions of central Illinois during the day Wednesday resulting in additional scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening. SE winds will pick up during the afternoon and evening with gusts to around 20-25 kt. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$