Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 162322
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
622 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Upper low continues to pull away to the east with light rain/snow
showers diminishing from was to east. As showers are partially
diurnally driven, any lingering showers should end by sunset.
Currently this activity looks to be from around Bloomington to
Shelbyville eastward. Cold air will continue to advect into the area
in brisk northwest winds, with lows tonight from 25 to 30 degrees.
Winds will decrease and clouds will diminish as a high pressure
ridge axis to the west edges into the area. Will continue the freeze
warning for tonight along and south of I-70 where the growing season
has started, although even colder temperatures will be to the north.

Temperatures should start to moderate for Tuesday as high pressure
slips east and light or southerly winds begin. Expecting highs
ranging from the low 50s north of I-74 to the mid and upper 50s from
Springfield to Mattoon southward.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The next system of importance comes Wednesday as a fast moving upper
wave and attendant surface low ejects east from the Rockies. Models
are fairly consistent at this point with the surface low crossing
northern IL mid-day Wednesday. With the earlier timing, highs
Wednesday have trended downward as the warmest temperatures will
come early in the day before a cold front pushes east through the
area. Most of the precipitation looks to be north of I-74, although
have slight chances for rain from around Jacksonville to
Martinsville. Highs ranging from 51 in Galesburg to 68 in
Lawrenceville, although any earlier timing could trim those
temperatures down further. A few snow flakes will be possible
Wednesday night north of I-74, but no accumulation is expected with
lows just above freezing.

High pressure and dry Thursday and Friday. Highs low to mid 50s
Thursday then mid and upper 50s Friday. Next low looks to cut off
and move south of central Illinois over the weekend. Therefore,
have slight to no chance of precipitation and highs trending from
around 55 to 60 Saturday up to 60 to 65 Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The back-edge of the stratocumulus deck was near SPI at this hour
and will continue to slowly push east this evening. Based on the
current speed, it appears the clearing line will get to CMI by
05 to 06z. However, a few of the short term model solutions
suggest as the clearing line advances east late this evening,
additional clouds will develop just to the west and northwest
of the cloud shield after 05z, but confidence on that at this
time is low. Right now it appears if that did occur, it would
affect BMI and CMI by keeping the cloud deck (3000-4000 ft AGL)
in longer than currently anticipated. Will go more optimistic
at this point as high pressure builds into the region late
tonight and on Tuesday with VFR conditions. West to northwest
winds of 10 to 20 kts this evening will quickly diminish after
00z with a northwest wind of 10 to 15 kts expected on Tuesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...Smith



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