000
FXUS63 KILX 171751
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Westerly winds gusting to 35-45 mph will continue through mid afternoon
  today. Areas of blowing dust could lower visibilities in
  localized spots. Drivers should exercise caution and avoid
  driving in areas of significantly diminished visibilities.

- The next severe threat arrives Thursday. SPC has a slight risk (level
  2/5) for counties along and south of the I-72 corridor. This
  could be an all hazards event.

- Weekend still looks chilly but dry. Overnight lows Friday night
  to Sunday night drop into the 30s, with Saturday night being the
  coldest night. This temperature drop could harm any sensitive
  crops and vegetation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

15z/10am surface analysis shows a cold front pushing eastward
across the I-57 corridor. Any convection that forms along the
front today will occur further east across Indiana/Ohio. Meanwhile
behind the boundary, am expecting windy and dry conditions across
the entire KILX CWA. W/SW winds have routinely gusted 30-40mph and
these gusts will persist through the afternoon before gradually
decreasing prior to sunset. Current satellite imagery shows a
large area of low clouds pivoting eastward out of Iowa, so cloudy
skies will be the rule everywhere north of the I-70 corridor. As
the parent low lifts further northeastward away from the region,
skies will clear from southwest to northeast late this afternoon
into early this evening. High temperatures will range from the
middle 60s along/north of a Macomb to Bloomington line where
clouds will be most prevalent...to around 80 degrees south of
I-70.

Barnes

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

This lovely Wednesday morning will be off to a windy start. The wind
will continue to veer to the west behind the departing cold front.
Westerly winds will continue to gust to 35-45 mph. For the most
part, they will stay just below or borderline advisory criteria.
However, yesterday`s winds overachieved at times out of the south
and westerly winds are know to over-perform, so they could easily
occasionally gust above 50 mph today. Forecast soundings from the
NAM and HRRR show 35-40 knots could be mixed down in the boundary
layer. The strong winds could stir up dust from the fields,
reducing visibility at times. Drivers should exercise caution and
avoid driving through areas of significantly reduced visibilities.

Today will be dry and warm. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms arrives on Thursday as a second cold front is progged
to move across the state. This cold front will also bring cooler
temperatures behind it. The PWAT for tomorrow show values of 1.0-1.3
inches. There is a small possibility that the round of showers
and thunderstorms could pose a localized flash flooding risk in
urban areas and areas with already saturated soils.

The risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon/evening is
primarily focused for counties along and south of the I-72
corridor. The biggest threat appears to be the hail risk.
Soundings show steep lapse rates and decent (50-60 knot) 0-6km
wind shear, supporting hail. The threat for an isolated tornado or
damaging winds are not ruled out. SPC has a slight risk (level
2/5) for the counties along and south of I-72. The marginal risk
(level 1/5) is spread southeast of a Schuyler to McLean county
line.

Temperatures this weekend will drop to below normal but will warm
back up with the new work week. The overnight lows Friday night to
Sunday night drop into the 30s, with Saturday night being the
coldest night (lows: 33-39). This temperature drop could harm any
sensitive crops and vegetation.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A large area of clouds continues to blanket locations along/north
of I-72 early this afternoon. VFR ceilings have been prevalent:
however, MVFR cloud bases across Iowa continue to pivot E/NE and
will stay just N/NW of KPIA over the next couple of hours. The
entire cloud shield will lift N/NE and gradually dissipate later
today...with clear skies anticipated at all terminals by late
afternoon/early evening. The next storm system will quickly
approach from the west tonight, with latest CAMs spreading clouds
and a few showers into west-central Illinois toward dawn. Based on
NAM/HRRR consensus, have introduced VCSH at KPIA by 11z...with
predominant -SHRA after 16z. Dry conditions will persist at the
remaining TAF sites until closer to 18z. Westerly winds will
initially gust 25-35kt, then will begin to subside before sunset.
Think winds will decrease to less than 10kt at all sites after
01z/02z.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$