000
FXUS63 KILX 131055
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
555 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 70s are expected today, warming to the 80s by Sunday.
  Lows in the 50s and 60s are likely through Wednesday.

- Continuing to monitor Tuesday for strong gradient winds and the
  potential of strong to severe thunderstorms that afternoon as a
  low pressure system traverses the Midwest.

- Temperatures will turn much cooler late next week into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The warming trend continues today, as WAA brings highs into the 70s
across the central and southeastern Illinois area. Clear, sunny
skies with much lighter winds are on deck for today. Tomorrow, highs
warm up into the 80s, which will hang around through Wednesday,
before a cooling trend sets up for the latter half of the week. By
next weekend, highs will be back down into the 50s (below normal).
Normal highs are in the mid 60s for this time of April. Lows will be
in the 50s and 60s through Wednesday before dropping down to upper
30s to low 40s by the weekend. Normal lows are in the 40s right now.
The drop could threaten sensitive vegetation.

The next event of interest comes along on Tuesday as a low pressure
system is set to cross the Midwest, bringing a couple frontal
passages. Monday evening a weak cold front looks to drop south
through the CWA. Then switches to a warm front as it travels back
north Tuesday morning. A cold front is set to sweep through that
following night. These rounds of frontal boundaries may be
associated with showers and thunderstorms. The pressure gradient
with the low will be tight, much like the set up yesterday, and will
subsequently have strong winds. Winds that day could gust up to 35-
45 mph at times. Forecast soundings show the boundary layer
potentially mixing down 30-40 knot winds. The cold front Tuesday
evening/night has the greatest chance of being associated with
strong to severe thunderstorms, with more than enough wind shear to
support development and organization.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions prevail for the entire 12z TAF period. Southerly
winds could gust up to 20-25 knots this evening. LLWS of 45 knots at
2000 ft AGL is possible after 06z, and will last into the morning.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$