Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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530 FXUS62 KJAX 221223 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 823 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 819 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cooler, mostly dry and breezy today with passing coastal drizzle along the NE FL coast this morning. Mostly to partly cloudy skies will continue through midday, with skies become clear to partly cloudy into the afternoon as high pressure builds NNW of the region. A `backdoor` inverted trough will slide WSW across the local area this afternoon, trailed by an increase in NNE winds with coastal gusts 25-30 mph late afternoon into the early evening. Mild high temperatures in the 70s today will trend some 5-10 degrees below climo values for this time of year. The main weather hazard today will be strong long-shore currents which will create a high rip current risk for NE FL and increasingly rough surf into the afternoon as winds veer more NNE to ENE. && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf After yesterday`s cold front, cool high pressure moves in from the north and northwest today, while strong mid/upper level trough expected to swing across through the forecast area. Breezy north to northeast winds expected today near 10-20 mph, strongest at the coast, with cloudiness this morning anticipated to diminish through the afternoon hours as drier air filters in. Still just a slight chance of a passing shower along the St Johns and Flagler county coast during the 1st half of today. Highs today will be a good 8-12 degrees cooler than yesterday, with 70s most everywhere. Tonight, mostly clear skies in the evening with northeast winds of 5-15 mph, strongest at the coast. Winds will lighten overnight, while directions back to more due north as some drainage type flow develops. Lows were adjusted slightly downward from previous but close to the NBM still with mid 40s north zones to upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 High pressure will build overhead allowing for clear skies and a warm up in temperatures following the cold frontal passage. Temperatures Tuesday will stay just below normal in the 70s, with most locations rising up to the lower 80s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 A weak cold front will approach from the north on Thursday, however conditions will be too dry for any precipitation potential. Temperatures will stay warm in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day as southeasterly winds fill in, keeping the coast a few degrees cooler than inland locations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 MVFR ceilings 1.5-3 kft will continue to impact NE FL terminals this morning, with bases becoming SCT-BKN and gradually rising through 15-18z for most locations, except SGJ which will likely be under MVFR conditions through 20-22z. Radar returns show coastal drizzle, and included -DZ at SGJ this morning. As low clouds begin to lift and break through the late morning, a deck of mid level 9-10 kft clouds will be visible at times. VFR conditions will prevail at SSI through the forecast period. Passing SCT low clouds will continue across NE FL terminals tonight (bases 4-5 kft) with high clouds increase aloft. NNW winds this morning veer NNE through midday with a NE surge into the late afternoon, which will increase gusts into the 20-25 kt range through early evening. Winds remain elevated tonight, decreasing into the 5-11 kt range by 06z. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Winds and seas increasing as expected with small craft advisories beginning soon as the cold front shifts well south of the area. So far, sustained north winds are noted to near 15-20 kt and seas at the area buoys reading about 3-4 ft, and higher offshore would assume. Only slight adjustments to the start and end time of the advisories, mainly to broaden the time frame a bit. Winds and seas should diminish Tuesday aftn as high pressure builds in. High pressure moves east of the waters Wednesday resulting in winds turning to the southeast and then south. Another frontal boundary will move into the region on Thursday, but tend to weaken and shift back north over the weekend, but these conditions don`t support advisories at this time. Rip Currents: As wind waves continue to grow today, increased threats of rip currents and longshore currents expected for the northeast FL beaches so have hoisted a high rip current risk. The rip current risk was then extended into Tuesday, given the rough surf that is still expected, and winds, though lighter, will be directly onshore. Generally lower risk, at moderate category for southeast GA beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Drier air will move in following the cold frontal passage as winds turn northerly, dropping minRH to near 40% for most of inland SE GA and NE FL today. By Tuesday, RH will drop further, with portions of inland SE GA and NE FL seeing minRH values below 35%. Dispersion values will be very high over inland SE GA and portions of inland NE FL today, with values dropping significantly on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 46 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 54 71 57 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 72 51 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 70 57 74 56 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 75 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 76 50 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$