458
FXUS63 KLBF 302030
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Wednesday
morning across the area.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday evening in portions
of central and southwestern Nebraska.

- Best chances for precipitation are Wednesday night with a
secondary threat for precipitation Friday night into early Saturday.

- Highs will be mainly in the 60s Wednesday through Saturday
  with a return to 70s Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

H5 analysis from this morning has a broad area of low pressure
located over the far NW CONUS and SW Canada. Two circulation
were noted with this feature: The first just off the coast of
Washington state and a second along the Alberta, Montana Border.
Southeast of this feature, a shortwave trough was located from
eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. Further east, a strong
shortwave was located over south central Ontario, with another
shortwave noted over Alabama. West of this feature, low
amplitude zonal flow extended west into California. At the
surface this afternoon...a cold front extended from near O`Neill
Nebraska, south southwest into south central Nebraska and west
central Kansas. Low pressure was located over south central
Nebraska and over central portions of South Dakota. Skies were
partly to mostly cloudy in the north and mostly clear in the
south. Northwesterly winds were gusty this afternoon
particularly over southwestern Nebraska where Grant and Imperial
gusted to around 45 MPH over the past hour. North Platte gusted
to around 50 MPH. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT, ranged from 58
degrees at Gordon, to 71 degrees at North Platte and Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Ongoing convection in association with the exiting cold front,
should clear the forecast area by 00z this evening. Later on
tonight, the NAM soln lifts a broad area of mid level warm air
advection from western Kansas into southwestern Nebraska. Even
though the boundary layer is relatively stable overnight, a nice
area of elevated CAPE and negative computed LI`s (750mb level)
lift into southwestern Nebraska after 09z tonight. If any storms
can initiate overnight, the degree of mid level instability
should allow storms to continue into the morning hours
Wednesday. With elevated CAPE`s of around 1000J/KG in SW
Nebraska tomorrow morning, wouldn`t be surprised if we see a
strong storm or two with hail being the main threat. This area
of elevated instability will track east of the area during the
afternoon hours and the area will see a brief reprieve in
precipitation chances early to mid afternoon. On the heels of
this elevated instability, a second shortwave and speed max will
approach the high plains from the central Rockies late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening. The latest CAMS develop some
showers and thunderstorms INVOF a weak surface boundary, located
across the panhandle into northeastern Colorado. As this
activity tracks east, it should strengthen, especially over
northern Kansas into far southwestern, south central and
southeastern Nebraska where better low level moisture exists
along with a nice low level jet. Further north, more widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur as these locations
are in close proximity to the right rear quadrant of the jet
streak and stronger dynamics. Given the limited low level
moisture, this activity over central and northern Nebraska
should remain below severe limits.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A strong surge of drier air, will push into the area, behind
the exiting system Wednesday night. This will lead to gusty
westerly winds across the area and an increased threat for fire
weather concerns as dew points fall off into the 20s. Afternoon
highs behind the system will top out around 60 degrees Thursday
afternoon which should keep minimum RH above 20 percent in the
west. On Friday, a shortwave trough will approach the area from
the west. This will lead to an increased threat for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. Looking at
moisture availability across the forecast area, the bulk of the
low level moisture is focused in Kansas into southeastern
Nebraska. This should limit the severe threat in the area,
however, the latest GFS and EC solns do develop some decent
QPF`s across the area Friday night. This precipitation exits the
area Saturday with some gusty northerly winds behind the
exiting system. After dry conditions Saturday into Sunday,
another upper level trough will lift into the central and
northern Rockies early next week. There are some differences
with the strength and track of the next upper level low. The GFS
lifts a low across the central Rockies, taking on a negative
tilt Monday. The EC soln takes a more northern track across the
northern Rockies and northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. Winds have strengthened out of the northwest
behind a cold frontal passage with widespread gusts of 25 to 35
knots. These gusty winds will continue through this evening,
before becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Viken