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000
FXUS64 KLIX 172030
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
330 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A weak upper level low is currently moving through the Great Lakes
this afternoon. It`s too far north to send a front down to the Gulf
Coast. However, moisture convergence extends from that far north
down into Louisiana. Radar shows that even though PW is below 1.5",
still have isolated showers able to develop over the CWA. Thus, have
done a last minute update to the forecast to account for this and
added some isolated showers to many zones. QPF should be relatively
minimal. Going into tomorrow, a stronger upper level trough will
push south out of Canada and into the High Plains to upper
Mississippi River Valley. Down here on the Gulf Coast, atmospheric
column moisture content will be slightly higher than today. 500mb
forecast looks to have a barely discernible shortwave possibly
passing across the Lower Mississippi Valley. CAMs seem to pick up on
this much better than the global models and depict scattered showers
possible across the CWA. Therefore, have added them to the afternoon
forecast. Otherwise, another warm day expected with temps well above
normal with highs in the upper 80s.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The above mentioned upper trough will continue east across the Great
Lakes Friday and Saturday. The upper low aloft will still be fairly
flat/zonal with possibly weak ridging in place. That`ll still
promote slightly more moderating temps. Could see an isolated
location or 2 reach 90 degrees on Friday. That`ll be within the
realm of record highs for the local area.

As we go through the weekend, models show a shortwave on the
backside of the northern trough moving through the region. This is
what`ll be needed to drive a cold front through the CWA on Sunday.
Ample moisture in place with lift from the front will be a good
setup for increasing showers and thunderstorms. Latest forecast
depicts this with rain chances increasing to near 80% and rainfall
totals around an inch. This cold front won`t be particularly strong,
so only looking at a day of below normal temps with moderating
conditions quickly returning as well as above normal temps Tuesday
onward.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Surface obs and visible satellite quickly point out cloud impacts at
terminals with MVFR conditions dominating the forecast at pretty
much all terminals. As the late afternoon through overnight period
progresses, should see cloud decks lower back into IFR heights.
Could see LIFR Thursday morning as well as areas of light fog impact
TAF sights. Those lower visibility conditions should improve by mid
morning.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A surface high pressure centered east of the local coastal waters
will remain generally in that position through the rest of this week
and starting this weekend. That`ll keep onshore flow in place, but
weaker pressure gradient should limit wind speeds and sea/wave
heights. Current global model runs indicate that a cold front will
move through the coast waters Sunday afternoon. Cold air advection
won`t be particularly strong with this boundary and thus likely only
looking at about 12 to 18 hours of Exercise Caution conditions.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  83  64  86 /  20  20   0   0
BTR  70  88  68  90 /  20  20   0   0
ASD  68  84  67  87 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  71  84  70  86 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  68  80  67  83 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  66  82  65  86 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME