127
FXUS66 KLOX 060336
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
836 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...05/836 PM.

A cold storm system has shifted east today, leaving cooler
temperatures and gusty west to northwest winds. A warming trend
will begin Monday and continue through Wednesday, then little
change into next weekend. Gusty northerly winds are expected at
times, especially in the mountains and in southern Santa Barbara
County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...05/836 PM.

The storm has passed but it has left behind some cool and blustery
winds across the region today, especially near the coast as well
as the mountains and Antelope Valley. These areas have generally
seen wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range, with some isolated
gusts to around 50 mph in the mountains. Winds are expected to
diminish below advisory levels for coastal areas and the
Antelope Valley by 9 pm this evening, and for remaining areas
by 3 am. however, gusty northerly flow will continue across the
area through mid week and chances are high that wind advisories
will be needed most of if not all days, at least for the late
afternoon and overnight hours across southern Santa Barbara
County and possibly in the I5 corridor as well.

Wind sheltered areas will experience a cool night, with some
interior valleys dropping into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will turn warmer Monday (especially inland) as
heights rise and the northerly offshore flow creates some
downslope warming. This will also either eliminate or at least
minimize any marine layer return. High temps should creep back
into the lower 80s across the warmer valleys by Tuesday, with a
few degrees of additional warming inland on Wednesday. Not quite
as warm at the coast which, despite the light offshore flow, will
still get a decent sea breeze each afternoon. And with ocean temps
still mostly in the high 50s, that sea breeze will cut into the
temperatures quite a bit near the coast.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/200 PM.

Still a fair amount of uncertainty for the end of the week into
next weekend, though the only impacts would potentially be cooler
temperatures than currently forecast and likely a faster return of
the marine layer. Deterministic models are favoring a low pressure
system dropping into the northern Rockies Wednesday and then
retrograding back to the Great Basin Thu-Sat. However, model
clusters are mixed but with more solutions favoring a continued
warmer pattern with ridging along the West Coast. There should at
least be a light onshore trend for the latter half of the week
that should nudge temperatures slowly downward. If some of these
deeper trough solutions pan out temperatures would be several
degrees cooler than expected. But no rain is is expected this week
or for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0253Z.

At 0018Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the
inversion was at 1000 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs. Timing of wind changes could
be off by +/- 2 hours, and +/- 5 kt gusts. There is a 10-20%
chance of IFR- VLIFR conds for KPRB and KSMX 08Z-17Z, and 20%
chance of MVFR cigs at KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, and KVNY 10Z-16Z. Gusty W
to NW winds will affect much of the region thru early tonight
with areas of LLWS, turbulence and mdt UDDF.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10-20% chance of
bkn018-025 cigs 10Z-16Z Mon. There is a 20% chance of northerly
cross winds to 12-18 kt through 07Z, and a 20% chance of an E
wind component of 7-8 kt 08Z-17Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10-20% chance of
bkn018-025 cigs 10Z-16Z Mon. There is a 30% chance of NW wind
gusts to 25 kt through 04Z Mon and again 16Z-02Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...05/827 PM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), Gale force winds will
continue through tonight. Elsewhere and otherwise, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds (and seas at times) are expected thru
Wed night, with a 40% chance of SCA conds (mainly seas) continuing
Thu. There is a 20% chance of Gale Force wind gusts across the
waters south of Point Sal on Mon afternoon into Mon night, and a
50% chance for all outer waters Tue afternoon into Tue night.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Thu night thru Sat
morning.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the forecast. Thru Wed night, winds are expected to reach SCA
levels during the afternoon/eve hours. Seas may remain at or above
SCA levels Mon night thru Wed morning, even when the winds
decrease. Then, conds should remain below SCA levels Thu night
thru Sat morning.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the
forecast. Expect Gale force winds to continue tonight across the
western portion of the Santa Barbara channel. Otherwise, look
for SCA level winds to continue tonight across eastern portions of
the channel and zone 655. SCA conds are likely (70% chance)
across the Western SBA Channel during the late afternoon thru late
night hours Mon and Tue, with a 30-40% chance of SCA conds during
these times in the eastern portion of the SBA Channel and western
portions of the southern inner waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 87-340-341-346>348-354-355-362-366-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 10 PM PDT this
      evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/MW
AVIATION...Phillips/Lund
MARINE...Gomberg/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox