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000
FXUS63 KLSX 170340
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across the
  area through this evening.  Large hail, damaging winds, and
  tornadoes remain possible with the strongest storms.

- Outside of the thunderstorm, winds will gust to 45 mph or higher through
  9 pm. A wind advisory is in effect for much of the area.

- Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms is likely
  Thursday and Thursday evening before mainly dry and cool weather
  is expected over the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A busy weather day with a north-south line of strong-severe
thunderstorms currently over the central CWA and smaller line moving
into the northwest CWA.  The HRRR continues to show this first line
moving slowly east and out of the CWA by 9 pm that will continue to
pose a threat for all hazards.  The HRRR is also showing the
northern line moving northeast but additional storms will backbuild
into the CWA through 9 pm.  Here again the HRRR is showing better
updraft helicity with these storms, so these storms will pose a
large hail and tornado risk into the evening hours.

I have also issued a wind advisory for the northern two-thirds of
the CWA through 9 pm as we have already been seeing wind gusts
outside of thunderstorms to 45 mph and higher at some observation
sites. The RAP is showing a a tight pressure gradient over the CWA
through mid evening and obs upstream are showing even stronger
gusts, so think we will continue to see these strong wind gusts into
the evening.

I expect the rain to move out of the area by late this evening and
we should see some dry time late tonight through at least Wednesday
evening as a shortwave ridge moves across the area.

Britt
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the area
on Thursday and Thursday evening as the LREF is showing many of its
members bringing a northern stream trough and an attendant front
across the area.  Then dry weather is expected over the weekend in
addition to below normal temperatures.  Lows on Friday night into
Sunday night will drop into the mid-upper 30s in a few locations.

Britt
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Showers and storms have moved out of the region this evening, so
should have dry, VFR conditions for the forecast period.
Otherwise, the main issue will be the gusty south winds, which
will veer to the west between 13z and 15z Wednesday. Could see
gusts up to 30 kts at times, then the winds will diminish by
sunset on Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX