741
FNUS73 KLSX 231855
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Adams Fire...USDA - USFS
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
155 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 CDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A band of showers with scattered thunderstorms will move into the
area from the northwest between 3-5 pm.  Less than one-
quarter of an inch is likely with this band, but the relative
humidity will increase.  Winds will be erratic around thunderstorms.
A cold front will move through the fire area causing winds to shift
from the northwest around 5 pm.  There will be chance of showers
(20-40%) through early this evening and then dry weather is expected
through Wednesday.  Winds will generally be light tonight and
on Wednesday and mixing levels will climb to almost 6000ft AGL on
Wednesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1600, then 9-15 strikes.
Temperature.........73 at forecast start...Max 73.
RH..................41 percent at forecast start...Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 10 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph
                    with gusts to around 19 mph shifting to the
                    west around 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Winds will be around 2 mph using a adjustment
                    factor of 0.2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 4.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise max
                    5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 23 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /16750 m/s-m/ at forecast start.
                    Max...excellent /16750 m/s-m/.

TIME (CDT)      2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT
Sky (%).........91     91     92     84     62     36
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............20     50     60     30     10     0
LAL.............2      3      3      3      1      1
Temp............73     71     66     60     57     53
RH..............41     49     61     72     80     89
20 ft wind......SW 10  W 8    W 6    NW 4   NW 3   NW 3
20 ft wind gust.18     18     14     8      5      4
Eye level wind..SW 5   W 4    W 3    NW 2   NW 1   NW 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.8      8      6      4      2      2
Mix hgt (kft)...5.3    4.1    1.7    0.9    0.5    0.4
Transport wind..SW 23  W 20   N 14   NW 8   NW 7   NW 6
Haines index....4      4      2      2      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..107    69     20     6      3      2
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Rain showers
                    likely early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2100, then No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (350 m/s-m).

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north around 5 mph late in
                    the morning, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Max 5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (360 m/s-m) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair max (6320 m/s-m) in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Britt
Requested by...Patric Marlow
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2412022.0/LSX
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0