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000
FXUS64 KLUB 101706
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The mid/upper level low/trough that has brought showers and thunder
to the forecast area the last 24 to 36 hours is clearly defined on
satellite imagery extending from western Oklahoma to the Permian
Basin. Radar imagery continues to show a band of light to moderate
rain wrapping around the back side of the trough. Models are in good
agreement with the trough shifting eastward to central Oklahoma and
northwest Texas by noon today and then east of the I-35 corridor by
the end of the day. Lingering lift after 12Z to limited to areas
east of the Caprock escarpment with 20-30 percent continuing to look
reasonable and elimination of shower mention after 18Z. Surface high
pressure will build in behind the departing mid level trough with
some breezy north winds mainly across the eastern half of the
forecast area. Despite some low level cold advection, clearing skies
mid morning to early afternoon will result in increased insolation
and warmer temperatures relative to yesterday and in line with NBM
highs. Light winds, clear skies, and fair weather tonight are in
order under northwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Not much change in the extended forecast. Broad ridging begins to
build in from the west as the system that brought showers and
thunderstorms the past couple of days exits to the east today.
Temperatures will remain below normal tomorrow with northerly
surface flow, while upper level heights and thickness begin to
build. By Friday, temperatures will climb back into the 80s and inch
higher for the weekend. A Pacific low will begin to track east
toward our region for the beginning of next week. Consensus for the
position and track in deterministic guidance is poor attm, low end
PoPs over the Rolling Plains Monday/Monday night seems reasonable
with severe thunderstorms possible when, where and if initiation
occurs. If the northern track for the low favored by the ECMWF
occurs we`re looking at another extended dry pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR will prevail for the TAF period at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW.
Gusty, northerly winds will persist throughout the remainder of
the afternoon and diminish near sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...09