319
FXUS64 KMAF 262340
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Westerly winds have picked up across the area and are blowing 25 to
35mph. These winds are advecting in dry air from the west and will
prevent any severe convection from developing in our CWA this
afternoon and evening. Winds weaken overnight allowing a dryline in
west central Texas to retreat back into the eastern Permian Basin by
sunrise on Saturday morning. The NAM Nest is showing convection
breaking out near Snyder and Colorado City Saturday morning along
the dryline though most models keep the dryline inactive. Will keep
a slight chance of storms to account for this possibility but the
better storm chances will be in the afternoon as an upper trough
moving into eastern New Mexico as well daytime heating maximize
instability. A line of storms is expected to form Saturday afternoon
and evening from Snyder and Big Spring south to Sheffield and Dryden
in the lower Trans Pecos. Any storms could become severe so everyone
should keep an eye out for storms the next 36 hours. Westerly flow
associated with the trough will push the storms east of our area
overnight.

Dry air across the area kept temperatures pleasant this morning and
expect more of the same tonight and tomorrow night as lows drop into
the 50s for most, some 60s along the Rio Grande. 40s are even
expected Sunday morning in southeastern New Mexico, the northwestern
Permian Basin, and mountains west of the Pecos. Highs will be in the
80s Saturday with 90s in the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Quieter weather sets in for the long term. The upper level low
responsible for our windy Saturday moves up into the Central Plains
on Sunday, and dry zonal flow aloft sets in over the area. This
zonal flow turns more southwesterly by early week as weak ridging
begins to build back in and the thermal ridge axis sets up over far
West Texas. Temperatures look to remain at or above normal through
Tuesday with this pattern, and most locations will be in the upper
80s/low 90s each afternoon. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough
embedded in the ridge moves across, while better moisture is ushered
in as surface flow turns southerly in response to lee troughing.
This should be sufficient for at least some afternoon convection,
especially for those east of the dryline, which may continue into
Wednesday evening. As the shortwave departs early Thursday, eyes
turn to a cold front pushing down into the Panhandle while the
associated upper level trough treks across the northern Plains. At
this point temperatures look to cool Thursday and Friday behind the
front, but should remain in the 80s area-wide. Depending on
available moisture as this front moves down, there is the
possibility of another round or two of showers/storms Thursday into
Friday. Stay tuned.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will
diminish in the next hour or two and remain light through 15Z
before increasing again and becoming gusty.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ERCs are currently right around the 50th percentile, but will
continue to tick up closer to the 75th percentile through the
weekend. Similarly, fuels continue at or above normal moisture,
however, drying is expected the next few days as humidity continues
to fall to critical levels each afternoon and overnight recoveries
remain poor to fair across the west. After a windy day yesterday,
20ft winds today remain elevated (~15-20kts in SE New Mexico and the
mountains) but comparatively lighter while humidity region-wide
is below 15 percent with RFTI values of 4-5. A Fire Danger
Statement is in effect for this afternoon across SE New Mexico and
the higher terrain where the strongest winds will be despite the
high fuel moisture. Winds pick up on Saturday with an approaching
upper level low and gusts could reach as high as 55kts in the
mountains with 30kts+ in the Plains and Foothills. Fuels will be
drying out through Saturday and ERCs may reach the 75th+
percentile in the Big Bend Region and lower Trans Pecos. With the
uptick in winds, along with critically low humidity and RFTIs
reaching 6-7, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for SE New
Mexico, the Big Bend, and the higher terrain. Similar to Thursday,
there will be a threat of thunderstorms Saturday evening which
may produce gusty and erratic winds along with some lightning, but
this looks to be fairly confined to the far eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos. Beyond Saturday, lighter winds, cooler
temperatures, and better overnight recoveries will limit fire
weather concerns somewhat until Wednesday when a shortwave trough
arrives and storms return for the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  85  54  85 /  20  10  20   0
Carlsbad                 54  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   61  93  59  90 /   0   0  20   0
Fort Stockton            56  89  55  86 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           53  67  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    53  77  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  81  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  83  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                   59  83  55  83 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                     56  84  51  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Saturday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from 6 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...10