Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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774 ACUS11 KWNS 030418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030418 TXZ000-030615- Mesoscale Discussion 0610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 030418Z - 030615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging gusts will remain possible over central Texas for the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell currently in Lampasas County still has a robust updraft, although a weakening trend may be beginning, evidenced by both lowering echo tops and the outflow-dominant velocity signature. Given this trend, damaging gusts are likely the greatest threat with this storms, although some isolated hail is still possible. A multicellular cluster has also recently developed across Hamilton and Bosque Counties, where anvil precipitation likely helped foster mid-level initiation in an environment characterized by low-level stability. Updrafts within this cluster are strong and do have some mid-level rotation, suggesting there is some potential for large hail. There is less buoyancy and increasing convective inhibition within the downstream air mass, so the general expectation is for these storms to gradually weaken as the move eastward over the next hour or two. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31819958 32079707 31629634 30829686 30889940 31819958