Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 032314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032313
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-040045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas...far southeastern
Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...
Valid 032313Z - 040045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and severe/damaging gusts
continues. A brief window for a tornado risk will exist for discrete
storms between 00-03Z.
DISCUSSION...A couple clusters of storms continue within WW 180.
Visible satellite shows some modestly agitated cumulus ahead of this
activity and west of modifying outflow from yesterdays convection.
While overall deep layer ascent remains weak as the primary trough
is passing by to the north, an increase in the low-level jet is
expected this evening. As this occurs, additional storms may form.
40 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should
continue to promote some threat for large hail and severe/damaging
wind gusts. Wind gust potential would likely increase as storm
coverage/cold pool interactions increase. The tornado risk should
largely be mitigated by an unfavorable storm mode. However, discrete
storms would have some potential to produce a tornado, particularly
within the 00-03Z time window.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36010227 36170304 36440339 36810343 37680248 38520250
38910232 39130043 38869978 37699975 36780000 36360021
36030085 35960216 36010227