492
ACUS11 KWNS 061558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061557
KSZ000-NEZ000-061800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...northwest/north-central KS and south-central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 061557Z - 061800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An arc of severe thunderstorms should develop by early
afternoon along the composite cold front/dryline. Tornadoes, large
hail, and severe wind gusts are expected with a midday tornado watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...15Z surface analysis placed the composite cold
front/dryline across southwest NE into far western KS. A lobe of
large-scale ascent indicated by a patch of upper-level cirrus along
the KS/CO border will rapidly spread northeast and likely aid in
convective development along the KS/NE border area during the next
few hours. A plume of at least moderate buoyancy is already present,
with earlier MLCIN noted in 12Z LBF/DDC soundings waning.
Enlarged/elongated hodographs will favor supercell structures,
especially with southern extent where a couple strong tornadoes will
be possible. Linear frontal forcing and potential for pinching of
the northeast portion of the surface-based buoyancy plume should
yield greater potential for upscale growth earlier with northern
extent. A mix of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts is
expected.

..Grams/Smith.. 05/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39220046 40650055 41430064 41860013 41919910 41219818
            40069774 39069768 38519826 38269914 38170010 38680039
            39220046