936
ACUS11 KWNS 040129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040128
KSZ000-OKZ000-040330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

Valid 040128Z - 040330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible even as
storms may tend to become elevated later into the evening.

DISCUSSION...KVNX/KDDC VAD profiles show an increase in the
low-level jet. The 00Z observed DDC sounding showed very steep
mid-level lapse rates though some capping was also present. Current
convection in WW 180 is expected to continue eastward with aid from
the low-level jet. The primary severe risk will exist with a storm
near the Wichita/Kearney County line. This storm will be capable of
hail up to 1.5-2 in. A line of storms is also moving east from near
Garden City to just west of Beaver, OK. This line has shown some
deepening cores on MRMS CAPPI and could produce severe wind gusts.
The overall eastern extent of the severe risk is not clear. However,
even as storms may become elevated with time, large hail and
isolated damaging winds could still occur. The tornado risk is
conditional on a discrete storm mode and should continue to diminish
as low-level stability increases. Some areal extension of WW 180
could be needed depending on convective trends over the next 2
hours.

..Wendt.. 05/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   38680144 39000081 38999910 38689893 38069879 38049879
            37999879 37279897 36849950 36660018 36540079 36620141
            36700160 38680144