Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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248 FXUS64 KMEG 020326 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1026 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 No significant changes needed to the forecast tonight. No additional rain/thunderstorms are expected until tomorrow afternoon as we warm into the middle 80s once again. Southwest flow will strengthen tomorrow beginning a stretch of numerous days when several weak disturbances will track from the southwest to Northeast across the Middle Mississippi River Valley. Widespread severe storms do not look particularly likely on any day, but a surface low will move across the Memphis area tomorrow night that may enhance a few storms. Stronger storms look most likely along and west of the Mississippi River where dew points will be a few degrees higher and closer to a weak shortwave trough. A cold front will usher in cooler conditions Friday when highs should be in upper 70s. Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend into next week. We should see high temperatures back in the middle 80s by Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will continue well into next week. Expect at least a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms each day. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Dry and warm conditions will persist through Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, a cold front will move into the region and bring unsettled weather to the Mid-South through this weekend. Expect highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s. Unsettled weather may persist through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Near record high temperatures are being reported across the Mid- South at this hour. Readings are generally in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The latest GOES East Visible Imagery reveals a weak MCV swirling over north central Arkansas. An area of showers and thunderstorms has formed on the northeast side of this feature and is lifting NE in southern Missouri. Some outflow from this activity could move into eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, but coverage should remain below 20 percent through early evening. Dry conditions will persist overnight as weak upper level ridging remains in place. A southern stream shortwave will traverse the ArkLaTex Region tomorrow morning and lift north into the Lower Mississippi Valley in the afternoon hours. A decaying MCS over the ArkLaTex may reemerge as an MCV tomorrow afternoon and lift northeast into the Mid-South by late afternoon. With up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE on hand and enhanced low level vorticity, a few strong to severe storms are possible late tomorrow afternoon and evening. In fact, a few SHARPpy RAP soundings suggest a marginal threat of damaging winds. This activity will likely persist through at least Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, a cold front will approach the region from the west and likely stall near the I-40 corridor. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Another reinforcing front will push into the region on Saturday and keep 30 to 40 PoPs over the region as a result. Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday into early next week as a series of shortwaves translate through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Highs will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon/evening when an MCV moves into the Mid-South. This MCV is expected to result in an extended period of SHRA and possible TSRA persisting through the TAF period. MVFR VIS and CIGS also appear possible with this activity, but confidence is not high enough to include these details in this TAF cycle. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JPR