Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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890 FXUS62 KMFL 100644 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 244 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The mid-level ridge that has been centered over South Florida today will begin to flatten as a shortwave and associated surface low drops across the SE US. This will keep South Florida in a warm prefrontal regime with 850mb temps around 20C, which would be near the climatological maximum observed for this time of year. Consequently, warm to near record temperatures can be expected today with highs in the mid to upper 90s over the Interior, with lower 90s near the immediate coast. For the east coast metro the question will be how far inland and how quickly the sea breeze pushes inland. For locations where the winds remain SWrly most of the day, highs in the mid 90s are likely, while for locations that experience an earlier sea breeze passage highs will likely be around 90. As a slight consolation, the airmass will remain relatively dry, so peak heat indices will only be marginally higher than air temperatures, i.e. largely in the upper 90s to around 100. Most areas will be rain-free today, with only 10-15% PoPs over the Lake region. Saturday will start out with South Florida in the prefrontal regime with very warm temperatures and southwest to westerly surface flow. By late morning to early afternoon, temperatures will again be in the low to mid 90s across most of the area, with heat index values around or above 100. Later in the afternoon and evening, a frontal boundary will slowly begin to push across the area, bringing along chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be across the Lake region and Palm Beach County (30-40%), with lower chances of 15-30% across the rest of South Florida. Strong to even severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, as sufficient instability (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and moderate lapse rates), moisture (1.5"+ PWAT), and shear (25-30kts of effective bulk shear) may be in place, especially along the East Coast. The primary hazards with any thunderstorms that may develop would be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The long term period will start out with a weakening frontal boundary pushing across South Florida and stalling just to the south. Behind the frontal boundary, conditions will be dry and a bit cooler than previous days, with high temperatures on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. For most of next week, a warm prefrontal airmass will return to South Florida under a mid-level ridge and southwest to westerly flow aloft. The frontal boundary that moved through over the weekend will push back to the north, and surface winds will gradually transition from southeasterly on Monday to south- southwesterly on Wednesday and Thursday. It will be reminiscent of the recent weather pattern, with the one difference being more atmospheric moisture in the area, bringing daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms along sea breeze boundaries. Above normal temperatures will be the primary headline of the long term period, as highs will be in the low to mid 90s for most of South Florida throughout the week. Heat indices will have the potential to climb into the 100s across much of South Florida in the mid-week period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings early this morning at APF. VFR conditions expected for the east coast terminals through the 06Z TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SW around 10 kts and then SE this afternoon for the east coast terminals after 17Z due to the sea breeze moving inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A moderate to fresh south-southwesterly breeze today will turn southwest to westerly on Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the area. Winds over the Atlantic waters will likely reach cautionary to near-hazardous conditions late this evening into tonight. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach coastline today. As winds trend more westerly/offshore over the weekend, the risk will decrease over the Atlantic coastline. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the generally dry fuels could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions, but winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 76 94 74 / 0 0 20 10 West Kendall 95 73 95 71 / 0 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 95 75 95 74 / 0 0 20 10 Homestead 92 75 94 73 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 76 93 75 / 0 0 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 94 76 94 75 / 0 0 30 10 Pembroke Pines 96 76 97 74 / 0 0 20 10 West Palm Beach 96 73 93 74 / 10 10 40 10 Boca Raton 95 75 94 75 / 10 10 30 10 Naples 88 77 88 72 / 0 10 20 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...CMF