112
FXUS62 KMFL 061936
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
336 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic
will continue to be the main synoptic feature in the weather
pattern across South Florida through the rest of this afternoon
and into Tuesday. The position of the surface high will allow for
the southeasterly wind flow to continue during this time frame.
With just enough lower level moisture in place, sea breeze
development this afternoon and then again on Tuesday afternoon
will provide enough lift and support for isolated shower and
thunderstorm development. The highest chances will remain over
interior portions of Southwest Florida where the Atlantic and Gulf
sea breeze boundaries interact with each other. With plenty of
mid to upper level dry air in place, this will help to inhibit
strong thunderstorm development, however, locally heavy downpours
cannot be ruled out with any storm. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will diminsh over the interior with the loss of diurnal
heating during the evening hours. Low temperatures tonight will
generally range from the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee
region to the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. High
temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid 80s across the
east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s across interior
portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

With the Atlantic ridge of high pressure shifting south as a
frontal boundary associated with a low in northeastern Canada
moves into the Atlantic from the Carolinas northward, the surface ridge
axis will sit over southern Florida from mid to late week. This
will enable a warming trend over several days with widespread 90
degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled areas closer to the
coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could see
temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday
and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some
convection cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness
will require monitoring as early as Wednesday as heat index
values start entering the triple digits.

Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the
southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear
South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and
thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles
over south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool
slightly with the additional cloud cover and rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southeasterly winds will continue this afternoon across the east
coast terminals and they will be gusty at times. Isolated shower
and storms will be possible mainly over interior portions of
Southwest Florida and they should stay away from most of the
terminals. The exception to this will be at KAPF, where some
shower activity could pass nearby late this afternoon into the
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will remain in place
through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters while
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the rest of
the local waters. Winds may become southwesterly each afternoon
across the Gulf waters as a Gulf breeze develops. Towards the end
of the week, winds across all local waters will gradually become
more southerly as a frontal boundary approaches from the north.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or
less through the middle of the week while they remain at 2 feet
or less across the Gulf waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through the middle of the week as moderate onshore
winds continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  86  75  87 /  10  20   0  10
West Kendall     72  88  72  89 /  20  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        74  88  74  90 /  10  20   0  10
Homestead        75  86  75  88 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  85  75  86 /  10  20  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  75  86  75  87 /  10  20   0  10
Pembroke Pines   75  89  75  90 /  10  20   0  10
West Palm Beach  72  86  72  88 /  10  20   0  10
Boca Raton       74  87  74  88 /  10  20  10  10
Naples           72  88  74  90 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CWC