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000
FXUS62 KMHX 201930
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will lift NE off the NC coast bringing
widespread rain on Sunday. High pressure briefly builds into
the area early next week followed by a cold front with limited
moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure builds
back into the area for the latter half of the work week. &&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Main concern late this afternoon into early
evening will be convective potential. Latest meso analyzed svr
parameters have crept up, as most of ENC has broken out into
sunshine, with warm/humid atms in place. Decent jet max persists
acrs the southeast, with effective shear vals aoa 40 kt, and sfc
based CAPES aoa 2,500 J/KG. Decent shortwave in the Piedmont of
NC will swing east through this evening, which will spark some
sct thunderstorms, esp along and south of hwy 70. This area is
outlined in a marginal risk for severe, and strong wind gusts
and hail to nickel size are possible here through around 8pm,
whereafter convection will begin to wane with loss of heating.

Lows in the mid to upper 50s CWA wide, with calm winds and
increasing sky cover ahead of a shortwave. Some light rain will
break out towards daybreak as overrunning isentropic lift begins
to inc late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Rain will be overspreading ENC from w to e
through the morning, becoming widespread by afternoon. Strong
isentropic ascent with decent 700-925mb fgen will bring periods
of moderate rain throughout the day. Model consensus indicates
widespread 0.50-0.75" QPF, with isolated amts to an inch or
more. This is good news considering most of the region is in
abnormally dry category according to the US Drought Monitor.
With the stratiform rain and low clods, it will be a raw cool
day with highs only in the 50s and a stiff north northeast
breeze at 10-20 mph, higher near the coast and esp OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern
with several frontal passages, including an area of low pressure
lifting off the coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the
flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday
and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and lift
along the coast through Sunday night and push the cold front
farther offshore on Monday. Widespread rain to develop across
the area Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts
expected around a half to one inch with highest amounts
occuring along the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep
cooler temps across the area with highs expected in the low to
mid 60s. The upper trough will push across the region Monday but
guidance continues to trend southward and weaker with dry
conditions prevailing. Below normal temps continue on Monday
with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Friday...High pressure builds into the area
Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with
additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across
the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture
appears to be limited with this system and will keep PoPs below
mentionable. High pressure builds back into the area on Thursday
and Friday with dry conditions prevailing. A warming trend will
develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s,
and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday. Temps cool back to the
low to mid 70s Thursday with a few degrees of warming on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sun/...
As of 2 PM Sat...Lingering MVFR at KPGV and KISO, with others
sites improving to VFR. Iso to sct thunderstorms are expected
late this afternoon into early eve for all but KPGV. Best chance
to see convection will be at KOAJ. Have several hours of VCTS
fcst through early evening. Ceilings drop again to sub- VFR as
we get into the evening/nighttime hours ahead of a shortwave and
sfc low that will bring widespread rain on Sunday. With the
rain, cigs will drop back down to IFR and tempo restriction to
vsby in the 2-4 mile range, esp in heavier rain.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Low pressure passes along the offshore
front Sunday through Sunday night bringing widespread rain and
sub-VFR conditions across rtes. Improving conditions will ensue
on Monday with pred VFR through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday night/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Have added all area rivers/sounds with the
exception of the Pamlico River to the SCA suite. For tonight,
general east to northeast breezes will prevail in the 10-20 kt
range, with seas of 3-4 ft. Low pressure will pass to the south
of ENC on Sunday, with n to ne gradient winds inc to 15-25 kt
and gusts up to around 30 kt. This will bring seas up to 5-8 ft,
locally higher ctrl waters where some near gale conditions are
possible. Have relied heavily on WWIV guidance, as NWPS has a
low bias on seas with n to ne winds. The SCA winds will end
first for Albemarle/Alligator/Neuse by early evening, and
further east into the nighttime hours, with Pamlico and nrn
waters ending by midnight Sun night. Coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet will cont due to large seas above 6 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Seas up to 6 ft and gusts up to 25 kt
will linger in this area Monday night. NE winds around 15 kt or
less Tuesday shifts to SW 10 kt or less Tuesday night, then
increases to 10-15 kt Wednesday in advance of another cold
front. Seas around 3-5 ft persist Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-
     137-230.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135-
     150-152-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday
     night for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RM/SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL