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000
FXUS62 KMLB 172004
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
404 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

...Near Record High Temperatures this Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Rest of Today-Tonight...Made a few adjustments to temperatures,
bringing afternoon highs down a degree or two in a few locations,
but nothing impactful. Still expecting to see afternoon highs reach
the M-U80s inland west of I-95, while the coastal corridor tops out
in the U70-L80s, maybe even the M70s  on the barrier islands thanks
to the sea breeze. Southeasterly winds have picked up to 10-15 mph
with gusts 20-25 mph along the I-95 corridor, occasionally tipping
over 15 mph with gusts close to 30 mph. More of a moderate breeze
inland with winds up to around 10 mph, but still on the gusty side
at 15-20 mph. Skies have become mostly clear, but a few controlled
burns are producing smoke, notably one in west central Brevard
County which the southeasterly winds are pushing towards the Orlando
Metro. Mid to high level clouds return overnight, as temperatures
drop into the 60s.

Thursday...The mid-level ridge builds back over the eastern US
between the shortwave trough working its way across New England and
a substantial mid-level low bearing down from Canada. High pressure
over the western Atlantic starts to shift south in response to a
series of low pressure systems developing across the CONUS, dragging
the ridge across across east central Florida. This will result in
lighter surface flow and increasing temperatures. The sea breeze
will be a little more muted, increasing south to southeasterly winds
to around 10 mph in the late afternoon and evening. Afternoons highs
a few degrees warmer than today, with inland areas in the U80s with
a few spots reaching 90, and the coastal corridor in the L-M80s due
to the weaker sea breeze. Remaining dry.

Friday-Sunday... High pressure over the western Atlantic will
influence the region into the weekend. The mid/upper level ridge
axis is expected to continue to flatten over the weekend behind
the weak shortwave Thursday and with a major shortwave trough
developing to the north over Canada and the Upper Midwest into the
weekend. Zonal flow aloft over central Florida is expected to
continue through Sunday ahead of the next "cool" front Monday. Dry
conditions are forecast with non-mentionable PoPs. However,
Global models suggests a few isolated showers may be possible
Sunday if a sea breeze is able to develop with increasing offshore
flow into Sunday. Temperatures are expected to continue an
increasing trend and reach near-record values, mainly at inland
locations Friday and into the weekend. Afternoon highs are
forecast to reach the mid 80s to lo 90s along the coast and the
low to mid 90s inland west of I-95 with lows in the low to upper
60s under mostly clear skies. Offshore flow will continue with the
east coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland west of I-95
from the east-southeast at around 10mph at least Friday and
Saturday afternoons.

Monday-Tuesday... Global models and ensembles are in good
agreement that the next "cool" front will weaken and become
diffused as it enters central Florida with upper-level support
remaining to the north over the Carolinas. Scattered showers (20-40%
PoPs) and isolated lightning storms are forecast to develop
and move east-northeast Monday morning to the north of I-4 with
showers and lightning storms forecast to move to the south into
the afternoon. Rain chances then dwindle into Monday night over
land as the "cool" front moves farther east-southeast, before
stalling over south Florida into Tuesday. Most of east central
Florida is forecast to remain dry Tuesday, although some of the
guidance suggests that a few isolated showers will be possible
into Tuesday afternoon across the Treasure Coast depending on
whether the front nudges back north. Afternoon highs are forecast
to reach the mid 80s to low 90s Monday with slightly cooler
temperatures Tuesday (upper 70s to low 80s across Volusia and
Brevard counties with the mid 80s to low 80s elsewhere. Overnight
lows are expected to drop into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as high pressure
extending over Florida from the Atlantic shifts south. Winds SE 10-
15 kts gusting to 20 kts inland and 25 kts along the coast settle
this afternoon settle to SE-S around 5 kts tonight through Thursday
afternoon, picking back up to 5-10 kts as a more muted ECSB
develops. Dry conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Rest of Today-Thursday...Favorable boating conditions. The ridge
axis of the Atlantic high shifts south from North Florida and across
the local area Thursday, continuing dry conditions. Winds veer to
the SE-S tonight while easing to 5-10 kts, veering more southerly
late Thursday. Seas 2-3 feet. Dry conditions continue.

Friday-Sunday... High pressure over the western Atlantic will
continue to influence east central Florida. South-southwest winds
at 8-14kts are expected to back southeast each afternoon with the
east coast sea breeze and increase Saturday and Sunday at around
12-20kts. Seas will build to 1-3ft with up to 4ft offshore Friday,
before increasing nearshore up to 4ft Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Previous discussion...

High pressure will remain in control over east central Florida
through the weekend, maintaining dry conditions and warming
temperatures. Southeast wind flow today 10-14 mph with some higher
gusts up to 20 mph. Slightly lower wind speeds Thursday as high
pressure ridge axis slips south across the area. Winds become
southwest late week into the weekend with sea breeze development
along the coast each afternoon. Min RH values will reach critical
levels across the interior, falling to 30-35% each afternoon
through Sunday. Along the coast, min RH values will hold between
40-50%. Very Good dispersion is forecast this afternoon and
generally Good on Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  89  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  82  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  63  83  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  65  88  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  65  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  62  83  61  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haley
LONG TERM...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley