000
FXUS64 KMOB 251137
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
637 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Patchy fog has developed around the region early this morning and
visibility is locally reduced to IFR to LIFR thresholds across a
few of the local terminals, including KMOB and KJKA. Visibility
should quickly improve by 13-14Z with VFR becoming prevalent
through the afternoon and evening. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out over interior portions
of southwest/south central AL this afternoon. Additional patchy
fog development appears likely again late tonight into early
Friday morning, with a few locations perhaps having visibility
reduced to IFR or lower thresholds again. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A broad upper level trough continues to move along the Mid-Atlantic
states and Eastern Seaboard region early this morning while ridging
aloft meanwhile builds across the Plains states. A northwesterly
flow pattern aloft is in place across the north central Gulf Coast
region between these features. A weak surface boundary is located
across central portions of MS/AL early this morning. Weak surface
ridging otherwise remains in place over our area. Patchy fog is
starting to develop across a few locations near the coast as of 3 AM
CDT and also probably across far northern portions of our area along
and just ahead of the surface boundary. Fog is expected to remain
patchy in nature through around or shortly after sunrise, but
visibility could be reduced to less than one mile, perhaps very
briefly dense down around 1/4 mile in isolated spots.

Northwesterly flow aloft is expected to remain prevalent over our
forecast area today with embedded shortwave ridging gradually
building into our region this afternoon. The weak surface boundary
should become oriented across interior portions of southwest and
south central AL this afternoon. Most of the deterministic and CAM
guidance is not optimistic with isolated convective development this
afternoon given the ridging aloft, but an isolated afternoon shower
or thunderstorm could still develop roughly north of a Butler to
Andalusia line in the vicinity of the boundary. We will leave a
slight POP between 15-20% in place over those areas. We otherwise
expect warmer temperatures today with afternoon highs expected to
range in the lower to mid 80s over most of the region, except for
readings in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate
coast. Upper level ridging will continue to build across the north
central Gulf Coast region tonight. A dry forecast continues with
potential for more patchy fog development during the overnight hours
across a good portion our region. Overnight lows should range in the
upper 50s to lower 60s over most inland areas and in the mid 60s to
near 70 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches.

The upper level ridge axis will remain overhead through much of the
day Friday before gradually shifting to our east by late in the
afternoon. Southeasterly to southerly winds will increase in speed
on Friday as the pressure gradient increases between high pressure
over the eastern U.S. and developing low pressure over the central
Plains. Dry weather conditions are forecast to continue Friday with
high temperatures once again reaching into the lower to mid 80s over
inland areas and into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the
immediate coast and beaches.

For beach interests: The rip current risk will be LOW today and
tonight, but will gradually become MODERATE by Friday evening and
night given the increasing onshore flow and swell. A HIGH risk of
dangerous rip currents will return this weekend with surf
potentially building up to 4-6 feet along area beaches Saturday
night through Sunday night. /21

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A strong upper ridge over the Eastern Conus will deflect shortwave energy
moving through a mean trough over the Plains well west and northwest
of the forecast area through Monday. A stronger shortwave system
moves over the Mississippi River Monday, shifting the upper ridge
off the East Coast. Another upper ridge begins to build north over
the Southern Plains into mid week in its wake. A surface ridge over
the East Coast will bring southeast to southerly low level flow to
the northern Gulf coast. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help
to limit better Gulf moisture influx to areas well west of the
forecast area into Monday. Around 1" or less of precipitable h2o is
advertised by guidance through the weekend. With the upper ridge
weakening and shifting east, the East Coast ridge shifts south to
become a surface high off the Fl/Ga/Sc Atlantic coast, and the
influx of better moisture moves to just west of the forecast area,
and precipitable h20 levels rise into the 1.3"-1.6" range over areas
west of the Alabama River. Rain showers return to mainly western
portions of the forecast area Monday through Wednesday with the
moisture increase and subsidence decrease. Temperatures remain above
seasonal norms though the period, with high temperatures ranging
from the low to mid 80s most areas, around 80 along the coast. Low
temperatures are expected to range from around 60 to mid 60s well
inland, upper 60s closer to and along the coast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A light and variable flow pattern will continue through early this
morning. Onshore flow will strengthen late Friday and especially
this weekend when winds may become sustained between 15-25 kt over
the marine area. Seas may build to 5-8 ft over the Gulf waters
Saturday night into Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will likely
become necessary this weekend. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  62  82  66  81  65  81  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   81  64  77  68  78  68  78  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      79  65  77  68  78  68  78  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   85  59  85  60  84  61  84  59 /  20  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  85  59  85  63  84  63  83  61 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      82  59  84  62  82  62  83  59 /  20  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   85  58  84  60  83  61  84  59 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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