000
FXUS63 KMPX 191157
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for isolated-scattered snow showers this afternoon. No
  accumulation expected.

- Temperatures drop to near/below freezing again tonight.

- Quiet weather through the weekend, with the next rain bearing
  system arriving early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin has started to dance along
the metaphorical line of freezing temps as the mid-level clouds
continue to scatter out across the area. Any susceptible vegetation
will be at risk again tonight with temperatures expected to be 1-3
degrees cooler than what we see this morning.

In collaboration with neighboring offices, a widespread mention of
isolated-scattered snow showers has been introduced for this
afternoon. Model soundings show a cloud layer developing within the
DGZ where near dry adiabatic lapse rates will be present. There will
also be a deep enough cold layer to keep any falling precip
primarily as snow. This combination of forcing and mid-level
moisture could be enough to result in the light snow showers. The
HRRR has been one of the more aggressive models for this trend. The
main limiting factor will be the pocket of dry air below the cloudy
layer that any precipitation will need to overcome. Thus, the other
possible outcome would be widespread virga, especially the further
south you travel. Regardless of whether you see more snow or virga,
no significant accumulation is expected.

Surface high pressure will keep things relatively quiet through
Monday morning, with below average temperatures, breezy conditions,
and mostly clear skies expected.

Our next upper-level disturbance will shoot southeast from Canada
Monday night into Tuesday. The system will look to occlude and spin
across the Upper Midwest, resulting in a prolonged period of
cloudy/rainy conditions. The heaviest rain will most likely fall
during the initial passage of the system, but QPF looks generally
light overall with only a few tenths expected at most. There is
potential for thunder to mix in, especially with the initial
passage, however the ingredients for anything convective are
relatively underwhelming at the moment.

Following this system, highs will trend into the 60s as ridging
builds in from the west. The CFSv2 accumulated supercell composite
parameter also hints a more active period may be setting up for the
central CONUS towards the end of April.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

All TAF sites will start out as VFR but clouds will be on the
increase from the north through this morning, eventually
becoming a stratus deck around 4-5 kft. Confidence has increased
enough to make a more solid mention of snow showers for all
sites except KRWF-KMKT, which look to be too far south for any
appreciable snowfall so have omitted its mention from those two
sites. For the remaining 5 sites, while no accumulation is
expected, intermittent snow showers do look to be sufficient to
bring a visibility reduction to MVFR, especially since it will
come in conjunction with an increase in winds. WNW winds will
increase to near 20G30kts early this afternoon through this
evening, which is generally the same timing of the snowfall.
Conditions will improve overnight through tomorrow while wind
speeds diminish.

KMSP...Will expect ceilings to develop around noon with snow
showers developing roughly 1-3pm, then continuing through the
evening push. Ceilings may reach MVFR level but not confident
enough to include them for MSP at this point. Main issues will
be intermittent visibility reductions with the snow showers and
280-290 winds increase late morning into this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC