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000
FXUS64 KMRX 140519
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Temperatures and dew points have been lower than previously
forecast, so they were adjusted downward for the next several
hours. This has mainly been caused by a weakening MSLP gradient
with surface ridging. As this surface ridge shifts further east,
winds will likely increase some, which will balance out the
overall low temperatures to the forecast values. Otherwise, only
minimal changes were made to remaining weather elements.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warm with a gusty SW wind on Sunday

Discussion:

High pressure will be near the Gulf Coast region through this
period, with a slow eastward drift. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
will track east across the upper Great Lakes. Tonight will be clear
and mainly calm as a surface ridge axis extends north into the
Appalachians, but the eastward shift of this ridge and the low to
the north will create a strengthening pressure gradient. A SW wind
will be channeled up the Valley, sustained at 10-20 mph, and with
winds near the top of the boundary layer around 20-30 kt, gusts
could be 30-35 mph at times. Higher elevations could see near 40 mph
gusts, but a Wind Advisory does not appear necessary at this time.
High clouds will be increasing tomorrow on the back side of the
midlevel ridge axis but should be mainly scattered. With the SW flow
and nearly full sun, highs will reach the mid 70s to lower 80s in
most spots outside the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warm temperatures continue through Thursday. Increasing rain
chances with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday.

2. Turning cooler Friday and Saturday behind a cold front. Highs
dropping back to the 50s and 60s Saturday.

Discussion:

By Sunday night ridging will be over the region and a shortwave will
be moving into the mid Atlantic states overnight into Monday with
some cloud cover affecting the northeast sections. A small chance of
rain showers across Wise and Russell County in Virginia. A weak
front tries to make it southwest into the forecast area then by
Monday night into Tuesday but only expect a few light showers along
the northeast border then.

The warm and dry weather should continue through Tuesday. However a
deep low pressure area will form over the central high plains early
Tuesday with a boundary to the east through the Ohio Valley. This
boundary or warm front will be lifting north Tuesday and will move
any showers that may form in the north and northeast away from the
eastern Tennessee Valley. Late Tuesday night and early Wednesday the
deepening low pressure system will move northeast out of the plains
states towards the Great Lakes region and push a frontal boundary
through the eastern United States.

Shower and thunderstorm chances rapidly increase Wednesday and
Wednesday evening ahead of the front. Higher pressure will rebuild
Thursday over the region but then a secondary front develops to the
west and moves eastward Thursday. This will increase rain chances
later Thursday night and through the day Friday. The timing of the
front Friday with the warm airmass in place could set the stage for
strong to severe storms. Behind Fridays system a much colder airmass
will drop temperatures 15 to 20 degrees back into the 50s and 60s
Saturday as high pressure builds in. Could be some frost northern
areas Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will dominate this TAF cycle. Southwesterly winds
will be gusty tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 28 knots
possible at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             82  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  58  81  59 /   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  56  82  58 /   0   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  55  79  56 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...McD