Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 280115
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
915 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Forecast mostly on track. However, current temps are running
several degrees above previous forecast. This is due to winds
still being elevated across the area. As drier air continues to
push in from the northwest, and winds lessen, temperatures should
get back on track. Therefore, no adjustments to overnight lows as
of now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Skies were partly cloudy this afternoon behind a weak cold front
that moved through the eastern Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians. Temperatures were still mild, in the lower to mid
60s behind the front with the colder air lagging behind and
affecting mainly plateau counties. Winds have shifted to the west
northwest behind the front. A deep upper low over the western
Great Lakes and associated upper trough extending south through
the midwest and Mississippi Valley will swing through tonight and
Thursday. Low pressure off the Florida NW coast in the NE Gulf
will move up the front and slow the progression of the front to
the east. Low level moisture should linger for part or most of
the night over the forecast area but expecting clearing late.
Temperatures will be lowest on the northern plateau and drop into
the mid 30s. Winds will decrease late and expect some frost there
so have issued a Frost Advisory. Elsewhere cloud cover, winds
staying up and lows in the upper 30s to around 40 should preclude
frost forming. Thursday with upper trough passing through
temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler but with more
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cooler temperatures Thursday night with frost/freeze potential
into Friday morning.

2. An upper level system will bring unsettled weather and warmer
temperatures for next week.

Discussion:

We start the extended period with dry and tranquil weather conditions
as the region will be under the influence of surface high pressure that
will be situated across the southeast. Winds will be light and with
clear skies in place, temperatures will fall into the 30`s area wide.
Some frost and freeze conditions are likely by Friday morning. The
surface high moves off toward the Florida Peninsula by Saturday with an
upper level disturbance progged to move across the Ohio Valley. This
may present low end rain chances across portions of southwest Virginia
Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise, increasing moisture advection will
lead to increasing clouds over the weekend, with southerly flow
bringing temperatures back into the 70`s.

Upper level amplification begins by early next week as troughing moves
off the Rockies and into the plains. Confidence is still rather low for
this period with differences in where exactly a surface low will end up
and the timing of synoptic features. There is enough confidence to say
that unsettled weather conditions will move back into the area by
Monday night into Tuesday associated with upper level height falls and
moisture advection. The previous discussion about heavy rainfall, and
potential for severe weather across the Tennessee Valley associated
with the frontal passage is still valid. There is still a lot of
uncertainty and the synoptic picture will likely change over the coming
days so it is important to monitor the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period at all sites. Winds
will range from 5 to 10kts. overnight out of the north-
northwest. Winds become gusty late tomorrow morning/early
afternoon with gusts from 18 to 22kts from out of the north to
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             42  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  41  60  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       40  62  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              39  57  34  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for Campbell-
     Morgan-Scott TN.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Diegan
AVIATION...


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