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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260522
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1022 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cool temperatures will continue today. A cold front will bring
a chance for light rain beginning tonight, with strong winds
Friday night. Increasing sunshine will kick off a warming trend
Sat-Tue.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Radar depicting a few scattered showers moving through the Bay
Area and Central Coast this evening. Mostly very light and short-
lived as seen thus far. Beyond the current precip moving through,
really don`t expect too much in the way of additional rainfall
overnight outside of a stray light shower or two, in additional to
areas of coastal and mountain drizzle as we head into Friday
morning. Overall amounts this evening will be just a smattering of
one to a few hundredths here and there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cloudy conditions continue, with breezy to gusty northwest wind this
afternoon and evening as the upper level pattern continues to shift
behind the low pressure center`s passage. An additional trough passes
through the area overnight, bringing widespread drizzle chances with
light rain possible on higher elevations and along the coast.

Precip chances pause Friday afternoon, but cloud cover will still be
persistent. Friday`s pressure gradient change will make for even
breezier conditions that afternoon specifically for higher peaks and
along the Big Sur coast. The trough looks to be slow to exit
Saturday morning with additional drizzle chances expected along with
another round of light rain chances on higher elevations and along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The new upper level pattern  keeps mostly northwest onshore flow into
the weekend. While the immediate coast will continue to struggle
with cloud cover, most areas slightly more inland and well into the
interior will see quicker clearing times. This will place most areas
back into the 60s and 70s into the next work week, while the coast
will stick to around 60 degree highs. By the late week, some of
those more interior locations look to break into the low 80s.

Longer term models are in better agreement that the next rain maker
may just stay well to the north of the Bay Area and Central Coast as
the ECMWF model families have adjusted the next trough to arrive
over Seattle rather than the Bay area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Generally MVFR to mid-level ceilings as a front passes through
the region. STS has cleared out behind the cloud shield, but
satellite imagery is showing expanding stratus to the north,
resulting in low confidence for clear skies through the night.
Mid-level to MVFR ceilings and scattered -DZ expected to continue
through at least the next few hours. Updated model output showing
earlier clearing times Friday morning, but confidence in clearing
time remains low. Breezy westerly winds continue overnight with
strong gusts building through Friday in the post-frontal
environment.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR ceilings continue through at least 12Z with
breezy west winds. Low confidence in clearing time Friday morning,
but VFR conditions expected by the afternoon. Breezy west-northwest
winds continue overnight and build through Friday. Gusts up to 30-35
knots on Friday afternoon, monitoring possible gusts above 35 knots
but at this time, probabilities are low (10-20%).

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Generally MVFR conditions with -DZ
possible overnight, clearing late Friday morning. Breezy west winds
building through Friday, gusting up to 20-25 knots in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1022 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Breezy northwest winds through Friday morning, most notably south
of Point Sur. Winds strengthen to become strong and gusty into
Friday afternoon with gale-force gusts likely near the Big Sur
coast. These strong and gusty northwesterly winds last through the
weekend and into at least the early portion of next week,
bringing hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Moderate
period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters
this weekend, with a new longer period northwest swell train
entering the waters Sunday. Light, long period southerly swell
continues through end of forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Behringer
SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Behringer

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