Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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937 FXUS64 KOHX 052329 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 629 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 After some patchy morning fog, the area has cleared up with ample sunshine allowing things to feel a little summer-humid-like. A few showers have developed across the Plateau region so far and this will be the weather story for a good chunk of the day. Although we aren`t expecting anything decently organized until later tonight when an upper level impulse rolls through, a few isolated showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder will pop up through this afternoon. Most outdoor events should be good, but always keep an eye on that radar in case you don`t want to get wet. With all that said, today is shaping up to be a fairly dry one. As mentioned above, an upper level system will be the main focus for convection tonight as the bulk of the precipitation can be expected after sunset and later. A few storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, but think this bulk of storms will push through before sunrise. With plenty of moisture around, some showers and a a rumble of thunder will be possible during the day on Monday, but no impacts are expected with Highs a little cooler than today with the extra cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Tuesday through Wednesday Night is really the main focus for this forecast period as strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated. Although things are somewhat unclear how they will play out in exact timing and location, scattered storms will develop across the area Tuesday afternoon. However, think the threat for anything strong to potentially severe would come from whatever develops to our northwest and makes it to Middle Tennessee Tuesday Evening and Night. The biggest concern with these storms would be damaging winds and localized flash flooding with any heavy rainfall. Now how things evolve will be the ultimate question come Wednesday morning as some leftover convection hangs around and upper level forcing moves closer to the area. The best forcing however will be well to the north leaving almost zonal winds aloft. So the timing of things combined with the best instability and shear Wednesday afternoon and evening will be the ultimate question. Regardless, think this set up for Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday Night is the best set-up for strong to severe thunderstorms that we`ve had in a month, so definitely something to keep an eye on in the short term. At the very least, there`s a damaging wind and flooding threat with a potential tornado threat in the mix as well. To top things off, although ensembles have very low probabilities of any one location receiving greater than 4 inches during this 3 day timeframe, the ground is wet and any location that gets a training set-up may have some issues with flooding. Luckily by Thursday, this system pushes to the south and ushers in probably our true last taste of spring On Friday just in time for Mother`s Day Weekend, before the taste of summer returns and probably remains. So, let`s enjoy it! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing in from the southwest and will continue to spread north and east through 06z. IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected with the line due to heavy rain, low vis, and low cigs. Cigs will lower to MVFR behind the line for the overnight into the morning with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continuing. Scattered thunderstorms will develop once again tomorrow afternoon after 18z. Winds under 5 knots this evening picking up out of the southwest overnight and becoming 10-15 knots for tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 81 67 85 / 90 70 60 60 Clarksville 65 79 67 83 / 100 70 60 70 Crossville 61 76 62 79 / 80 80 70 70 Columbia 64 81 66 84 / 90 70 50 60 Cookeville 63 76 64 81 / 90 90 60 70 Jamestown 61 76 62 81 / 80 90 70 80 Lawrenceburg 64 81 66 84 / 90 70 50 60 Murfreesboro 64 81 65 85 / 90 70 50 60 Waverly 63 79 67 83 / 100 60 60 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hurley LONG TERM....Hurley AVIATION.....Mueller