Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 210707
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
207 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Water vapor imagery shows the upper Low currently spinning over
Colorado. Associated moisture to the east, is offering some
teleconnected ridge topping mid and high clouds across the mid
Mississippi river valley. The evolution of this system is the
primary impact weather for us over the course of the short term
forecast period.

In general, all the models continue with an east-southeast
track of this Low across OK/AR and into northern MS/AL. This
continues to effectively keep convective instability support to
our south, so this will be another package without mention of
thunder. What would change that, is if we see a track which
deviates further north. However, the models have been real
consistent on this track remaining to our south, with its thunder
chances.

What is trending, though, is a slight upward tick in overall QPF
for the system. Timing has been consistent. Rain chances begin
tonight, spread across the area in entirety on Sunday, peak Sunday
night into Monday with the Low`s nearest proximity, and then
trail off by Monday night with the Low`s passing. Storm total
average rainfall amounts will range from around 1.5 inches along
the Arkansas and Tennessee borders, to about an inch from near
CGI-MAD, with half inch or less amounts along and north of a
MDH-EVV line.

Today will see temps return as close to seasonal norms as we have
had recently, and then clouds/rain will mute Highs some 5-10F
below climo, while keeping Low`s near normal, for the ensuing
48 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast is about average
at this point. On the surface, 00Z deterministic models are not
terribly dissimilar in their respective synoptic depiction through
the period. However, the complicated, fast-changing nature of the
pattern lends to a higher potential for variation in timing and
placement of weather features and their respective impacts.

An active pattern is shaping up during the mid to late week period
as a series of upper level perturbations pivot southeast across
the middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys amidst an overall
cyclonic flow pattern. The first Low that impacts the region early
in the week is forecast to shift slowly into the Tennessee Valley
by Tuesday. This will result in a slight chance for lingering
showers over eastern portions of the area--primarily southwest
Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky-- on Tuesday.

A brief reprieve from the wet weather is anticipated by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. However, upper level energy forecast to enter
the Pacific Northwest on Sunday is progged to shift east across the
Plains early in the week and into the Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday. This yields a chance of showers on Wednesday and perhaps
lingering into Wednesday night.

While Thursday looks dry at this point, the approach and passage of
a sharp upper level trough will bring yet another chance for showers
by late Thursday night and Friday. Instability will be lacking
throughout the period, so thunder is not expected. Precipitation
amounts are also on the light side, so no substantial impacts are
anticipated at this time.

Relatively uniform temperatures are forecast through the period.
Highs should average through the 60s with lows generally in the
upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Mid and high clouds will continue to top an upper ridge today,
with high level VFR cigs offered as the ridge slides slowly off to
the east over the course of the day. The following 12 hours of the
night time forecast will then see moistening of the atmospheric
profile downward from these mid and high levels, with rain chances
setting in from the southwest slowly with time. Even so, Visual
Flight Rules, should hold thru the remainder of this effective
valid forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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