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000
FXUS63 KPAH 151904
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
204 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong storms possible I-64 corridor this
  afternoon/evening.

- Unseasonably warm weather continues through mid week.

- Chance for more widespread strong-severe storms Tuesday
  afternoon/evening through Wednesday.

- Cooler and drier by week`s end/through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Isolated strong storms are possible along a southward sagging
boundary this afternoon, in/near the I-64 vicinity mainly. Dew
points are in the lower 60s and with temps rising into the low-
mid 80s, MUCAPEs peak 1500-2000 J/KG. Effective shear is about
25 KTS and 700-500 MB lapse rates peak around 7C. Large
hail/downburst will be the primary (potential) hazards this
afternoon/evening.

The boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, and we
fully warm sector while (low) pcpn chances linger. Better
chances, including better strong storm chances, will be incoming
tmrw pm as the CAMs all develop a line of convection that
approaches from the west, as the parent low shifts east from the
Plains. It will meet a similarly unstable and juiced low level
environment, but shear will markedly increase and heighten
chances for more widespread storms, including strong/severe
storm potential. It will be all hazards severe as helicity
ramps up with the low nearing, tracking into/across IA heading
thru the overnight.

Another threat of storms will come Wednesday as a convective
line is modeled to develop along the actual cold front. Daytime
heating soups up the atmosphere here again and we see the line
modeled southward from the parent Low, into the northern reaches
of the FA. It sweeps/expands eastward/southward as the front
makes passage Wednesday afternoon. It too will feature a
potential all hazards severe threat until its passage.

Gradient winds pick up in gustiness both Tuesday and Wednesday
and may approach Advisory criteria at times. The speed of
movement of the convective system(s) is enough to preclude
anything higher than a Marginal Risk for flooding at this
writing.

After fropa, we see a late week cool down that extends into/thru
the weekend. In the interim, there`s another system that gives
higher pops Thursday into Friday, before enough atmospheric
metamorphosis occurs to allow that cool air to more abley
invade our Quad State. Eventually it does, and 60s/40s supplant
our 80s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

SCT-BKN diurnal CU based 3.5-4.5 FT AGL will have increasing
mid and high clouds overtop through tonight. Isolated storms
are possible this pm, mainly along a frontal boundary sagging
southward to near I-64. Light south winds pick up/get gusty
tmrw as we position solidly in the warm sector. This will
increase columnar moisture, resulting in more widespread VFR
bases. Thunderstorm chances will increase again tmrw but best
chances hold off past this current package, later tmrw into tmrw
night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

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