427
FXUS63 KPAH 300703
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
203 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM CDT across
  much of the region. Areas with visibility less than a quarter
  of a mile have already developed this morning.

- Above normal temperatures peak Wednesday and Thursday in the
  mid to upper 80s, with upper 70s to lower 80s forecast through
  early next week.

- A cold front will bring the next chance for rain late Thursday
  into Friday. The main hazards with thunderstorms will be
  lightning and heavy downpours. The pattern then remains
  unsettled into next week with daily chances for showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Skies are clearing this morning behind a cold front as the final
round of pcpn over the Kentucky Pennyrile is now diminishing. Light
winds combined with residual moisture below 950 mb in the boundary
layer has allowed for areas of dense fog to develop across portions
of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky.
Until the shallow inversion is able to mix out with diurnal heating,
dense fog will continue to be likely along with lingering low-level
clouds. For this reason, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 9AM
CDT. Contingent on how quickly skies clear, it is possible the
advisory may need to be expanded east across the PAH CWA.

Quasi zonal flow at the jet level today into Wednesday will allow
for tranquil weather as southerly return flow at the sfc will cause
maxTs to rebound back into the 80s. The only caveat is late tonight
when a weak impulse may have enough 700 mb moisture to trigger a
stray light shower across far NW portions of southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri, but QPF only amounts to a few hundreths of an
inch at most.

Unseasonably warm conditions are also progged for Thursday as an
upper-level ridge builds over the SE CONUS. MaxTs are progged to
rise into the mid to upper 80s, and it is possible a few locations
could near 90 degrees as model soundings show deep mixing extending
into a dry layer above 850 mb. Conditions will also be breezy with
south winds as the pressure gradient tightens. By late Thursday into
Thursday evening, the aformentioned ridge begins to move east of the
FA as a trough digs across the northern Plains. Southern stream
energy lifts north Thursday night providing forcing for ascent for
showers and thunderstorms through much of Friday as a cold front
slowly approaches from the west. 0-1km MLCAPE looks to be modest at
best, and the shear is very meager favoring lightning and heavy
downpours being the main concern with storms. Even with fropa on
Friday, maxTs will still be a bit above normal in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

The weekend into early next week remains a bit unsettled as a
frontal boundary remains nearby with multiple southern stream
impulses in the mid-levels. Confidence is not the greatest on timing
as the NBM has chance PoPs progged through most of the period due to
model blends, but would expect some dry intervals to be mixed in
with breaks of sun. MaxTs are progged to remain in the lower 80s
with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s as it will certainly feel a lot
like summer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A challenging forecast through early Wednesday morning with low
clouds and dense fog likely to persist and/or develop. With
gradual clearing, VLIFR conditions in dense fog should develop
across much of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and far
western Kentucky, including KMVN/KCGI/KPAH. Further east, low
clouds are forecast to prevail across southwest Indiana and the
Kentucky Pennyrile, including KEVV/KOWB. However, confidence is
lower in this area, and if low clouds clear out sooner than
expected, dense fog may become an issue as well.

The low clouds and fog should erode through the morning, paving
the way for a mostly clear sky by afternoon into Wednesday
night. Light and variable winds through midday will trend more
southerly around 5 knots from west to east during the afternoon
and into Wednesday night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...RJP