Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 250424
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1124 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heightened fire danger continues this afternoon due to low
  humidity and breezy winds.

- Wind conditions really ramp up late tonight through Monday as
  a storm system approaches from the west. South winds 20 to 30
  mph may gust upwards to 50 mph at times. A Wind Advisory has
  been issued.

- Thunderstorms are forecast as a cold front approaches (Monday)
  and makes passage (Monday night through Tuesday). Heavy rain
  and lightning are primary hazards Monday night, with gusty
  winds and hail potential from mid morning to early afternoon
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Expect our developing Plains storm system to take shape and lift out
tonight. With it to the west, and high pressure anchored now to our
east, the gradient between will be tightening and winds will really
be picking up with time. A consistent daily signal supports headline
winds/gusts, with the mean falling in the 40-50 mph gust potential
range. As a result, we`ll be issuing a Wind Advisory for our entire
region. If the NBM and selected high end deterministic output is
right, that may eventually need upgraded to a warning.

A prefrontal line of convection will develop and move in from the
west tmrw night, as the cold front approaches. Night-time passage,
retarded surface dew point return (low 50s maxed), and resultant
minimal 0-1KM CAPE hinders strong storm potential here, despite
overall increasing speed shear and dynamical energy; shunting it
instead to the north with the low, and to the south where richer
moisture/instability resides. The main impact for us (outside the
gradient winds) will be heavy rainfall, as the E-SATs are
sufficiently robust with 1-1.25" PW`s in the 90th percentile
supporting WPC`s MRGNL risk for excessive rainfall. 1-1.5" average
qpf may over-achieve where some thunder can locally enhance, and
that`s where minor low land and flood prone areal water issues might
develop.

What began as an interesting trend yesterday has become more
consistent with the overnight and now this morning model runs...and
that`s the more robust development of instability during the daytime
Tuesday that may promote the development of a 2ndary line of
convection. The models have upwards to 800 Joules of 0-1KM MUCAPE to
work with as the actual front makes its pass across our eastern half
FA, from about mid morning to early afternoon, just as we`re heating
up. The NBM continues to depict this nicely with likely pops and we
see SPC has responded with a marginal risk of wind/hail
severe...which we support. The convective chances effectively end
west to east across the area with the cold front`s passage later
Tuesday afternoon and evening and the mean long wave trof marks its
passage thereafter. Drawn in behind the departing system is a cooler
air mass for the mid week, then it too shifts east, allowing for a
mild warmup to ensue by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Clouds will gradually thicken through the morning as low
pressure approaches the region from the west. Model guidance
continues to delay the arrival of MVFR cigs due to stubborn dry
air in the column. The main concern in the near term will be the
significant increase in winds as the pressure gradient tightens.
South winds between 15-25 kts and gusts 30-40 kts will become
likely by the morning.

As moisture increases through Monday afternoon, MVFR cigs will
begin to arrive at KCGI around 18z and 23-02z from west to east
across the rest of the terminals. The other concern is a period
of pcpn Monday evening into Monday night with the arrival of a
cold front. Have included PROB30s from 23-05z as high-resolution
models indicate the potential for an embedded squall line that
will be capable of causing brief MVFR/IFR vsbys. IFR cigs are
also possible at KCGI/KMVN. This is when the highest winds are
expected with south winds around 20-25 kts and gusts 40-45 kts
as a nocturnal low-level jet ramps up. Towards the end of the
TAF period, pcpn will taper off to lingering -SHRA, but winds
will still be quite breezy.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory from 5 AM CDT /6 AM EDT/ Monday to 5 AM CDT /6
     AM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW


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