Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 130906
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
406 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

After a rather windy and unseasonably mild start in the mid and
upper 60s this morning, today will also be quite warm and very
breezy, with southerly winds gust from 25 to 35 mph commonplace
once again. 925 mb winds should ease off just a bit during the
day, so will hold off on wind advisory (gusts over 40 mph)
headlines for now. Will issue special weather statement to
address some gusts possibly exceeding 35 mph, mainly this morning.
Could also have hazard impacts to boaters/fishermen on area
lakes, especially those oriented from north to south. Increasing
mid/high clouds along/west of the MS River may hold temperatures
back a little, but all locations should still reach well into the
70s this afternoon. Some locations in the KY Pennyrile region may
even flirt with 80 degrees once again today.

Warm advection showers and some thunderstorms will likely get
going later this afternoon over AR/south-central MO as a high
amplitude cut-off H50 low moves slowly east into the southern
plains and draws deep moisture rapidly north into the region. This
activity will then spread east into much of southeast MO this
evening. High shear/low CAPE type severe risk may last well into
the evening, generally west of the MS River, as sfc dew points
hover up around the 60 degree mark. Instabilities, and therefore
severe storm risk, should drop off some by around midnight.
However, a slug of moderate to locally heavy rains with embedded
thunderstorms will continue to overspread the remainder of the
forecast area late tonight.

There are still some indications that there will be a break in
precip for awhile early Saturday into the early PM behind the
first wave of precipitation. Depending on how much
destabilization can take place during the day, another conditional
severe risk for a severe storms could develop ahead of the main
frontal system Saturday afternoon. Vertical shear profiles would
be more than adequate to support rotating updrafts and organized
convection. Highest rain totals with the two systems combined
could reach over an inch or two by Sunday morning, esp in areas of
wrn KY and sw IN. Will update ESF product to address the hydro
aspect of the upcoming event.

Unseasonably chilly air will race back into the region behind the
cold front and associated dry slot Sunday/Sunday night, along
with extensive wrap around clouds. Some locations may not recover
much from their overnight lows, with readings expected to hover
in the upper 40s and lower 50s all day long.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Greater than normal confidence in the extended with models in
unusual good agreement.

At the start of the week high pressure will be centered over the
central plains. This will keep temperatures below normal for the
early part of the work week. However as the high drifts southeast
over the gulf coast during the week it will allow for a southerly
flow to return to the region. This will also result in a warm front
lifting through the area mid week allowing temperatures to rise to
near normal by mid week. A cold front will move through in the warm
fronts wake bringing temperatures back down for the later half of
the week but not much below normal. High pressure will build back
into the region for the end of the week allowing temperatures to
return to near or slightly above normal. The next storm system
appears to move into the area next weekend as a vertically stacked
low moves into the middle Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Gusty SSW winds will continue, generally 12 to 22 kts with gusts
25 to 30+ kts. Occasional high clouds overnight. Lowering cigs
Friday, with MVFR cigs possible by afternoon across southeast
Missouri.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH



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