Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240504

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1204 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

H5 low was centered over NW TN. Breaks in the clouds allowed the
airmass to destabilize, with scattered showers and storms the
rule this afternoon across west KY into southern IL. This trend
will continue through late afternoon. A few storms will produce
pea size hail and 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain in 30 to 45 minutes. We
should see a decrease in coverage and intensity tonight as we
stabilize somewhat. Sometimes the models hang on to too much low
level moisture in close proximity to closed lows like this. There
could be an increase in low clouds tonight, but overall confidence
is low. Will continue with a low chance of showers across mainly
our east counties on Tuesday with the low just to our east. Temp
trends tomorrow will be similar to what we saw today. Slightly
cooler over east sections.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Now that the closed low in southern CA/NV/AZ is within a denser
observational network, there should be a little more consistency in
the resolution/timing of the system as it move in and around the
WFO PAH forecast area on Monday. The Canadian guidance has been
fairly consistent the past couple of days with the evolution of
this system, but the deterministic 00z Friday GFS seems to have
taken over as the preferred medium range guidance for this
forecast package. At this point, there is medium to high forecast
confidence (50-70%) with the rain chances Monday into Monday

Forecast confidence for rain chances Tuesday through Thursday are
below average (generally below 40%) as there high model variability
in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on the timing,
evolution, translation, and phasing of the northern U.S./southern
Canadian border shortwave developing next Monday.  Given the
variability, will stick with the low PoP regionally blended model
guidance as a starting point. The antecedent eastern Pacific and
western Canada circulations serving as a genesis point for the
dominant shortwave on Monday are not even expected to move over the
northwest U.S. until Sunday at the earliest.  Utilized a blend of
the regionally blended model initialization with some influence of
the current deterministic/MOS GFS guidance and the spatially reduced
NAM guidance.

All in all, it appears that next week that next week will see below
normal (5-10 degrees below) highs and lows and mainly showery
precipitation with the greatest coverage Monday, then again
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures may rebound to near normal next
Friday with dry conditions into next weekend.


Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Dense fog will be a problem for the next hour or two at KPAH, but
lower MVFR ceilings and a modest northerly breeze will eventually
overspread the entire area and wipe out most of the fog. IFR
ceilings will eventually overspread most of the region by morning
and then slowly lift back into MVFR territory in the
afternoon/evening. KCGI and KPAH may even get to VFR levels in the
late afternoon or evening. North winds will increase possibly to
10kts or a bit more in the afternoon.




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