Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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167 FXUS63 KPAH 292241 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 541 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/storms will precede a cold front`s passage tonight. Efficient/heavy rains will be the primary hazard with 1-2" rain totals over portions of western Ky possible. - Seasonally warm temperatures peak about 10 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with otherwise upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated through the remainder of the forecast. - Rain chances are best with storm system passages tonight, Friday, and again late this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 537 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Aviation update for the 00 UTC TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A cold front will make slow west-to-east passage tonight. Along/ahead of it, showers/storms advance and expand and we`ll eventually see them come to an end in west-to-east fashion with the fropa. Until then, some lightning and locally efficient/at times heavy rains are possible hazards. Some 1-2" totals may occur in portions of western Ky, but beyond localized/prone area flood issues, our slightly to moderately dry ground conditions should be able to handle that amount of rain. Clouds will clear shortly thereafter, but seeing how this process takes us thru much of the night, there is some potential for a wet near surface layer to develop some fog or low clouds toward daybreak as skies clear/winds become light. This may linger clouds into early tmrw morning before daytime heating breaks the inversion and mixes everything out and drier conditions onset for the mid week. Temps remain on the warm side of seasonal with upper 70s to lower 80s tmrw climbing toward the middle-upper 80s for Wednesday-Thursday. The cold front`s passage draws dew points down into/thru the 50s tmrw, but they`ll return to the lower 60s by mid week, just as we are heating up again. That means daily rain chances reappear by Thursday, as our upper ridge moves east and troffing in the High Plains moves our direction. One wave`s passage by week`s end spikes pops Friday, then a relative pause occurs til more active weekend chances set up within a belt of southwesterlies aloft that continues the fetch of warm/moist air. Temps/dew points mirror earlier in the week when 60s back off to 50s dew points before returning to the 60s again, with temps in the 70s again Friday returning to around 80 for the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 537 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 We will not make many changes. Generally VFR conditions outside of showers and storms moving across southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile region. That activity will shift east by 01 UTC. However some additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be around through 03-05 UTC, followed by decreasing clouds and the possibility of fog (or low clouds) overnight into early Wednesday morning. Winds will be variable at or below 6 KTS for the most part this evening, light and variable to near calm overnight. The clouds should break through the day Wednesday with north winds 4 to 8 kts expected east of the MS River, and variable in direction over southeast MO. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$