Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 130130
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
830 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

All WWA`s have expired. Forecast for the overnight generally
on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

This weekend`s rain event has effectively moved into the short
term portion of the forecast now, and confidence is growing in the
1 to 3 inch rainfall forecast. Where confidence lacks is in the
2nd of the two primary rounds of rainfall. The first round has
high probability of occurrence Friday night, with upwards to an
inch and a half falling in our south/west. The model solutions
regarding the occlusion of the system/boundary, and the stalling
or progression of it on Saturday, are what throws the question
marks and lowers the confidence level for Saturday-Saturday night,
and the 2nd round of rainfall. For now, WPC and the blend are
accepting the mean ensembling of a redeveloping rain chance esp
late Sat into Sat night, highest chances being in our east (lowest
west), with upwards to another inch or inch and a half possible
there. That would put storm total rainfall in the 1 (north) to 3
(south) inch range. If the 2nd bout of rainfall skews, those
amounts could be effectively halved. Of course, if the system
stalls, they could be increased, so we`re probably in a good
middle ground on that as well as within the mean ensembling of the
solution(s) members over the past 24 hours.

Severe/strong convection chances at this writing, look like they
are going to be primarily south/west Friday evening, and then
south/east, Saturday pm/evening. This too will be followed closely
as the windows for stronger convection will be especially narrow
Friday evening (00z-03z) and then again depending upon insolation,
Saturday pm/evening.

Near term gradient winds/gusts at Advisory thresholds should wane
off their peaks as the sun sets. Similarly, that is expected with
rh`s and so headlines for Fire and Wind will be allowed to expire
around sunset. Increasing dew points tmrw should preclude red
flag conditions occurring again, but will be monitored closely.
An ESF was issued for the weekend rainfall potential.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

The surface low will be situated to our northeast on Sunday.  GFS
and the Canadian show some wrap around moisture/light QPF moving
across most of our region Sunday afternoon, with the GFS, Canadian
and ECMWF showing some showers possible in our eastern counties
Sunday night, especially during the evening.  Included some slight
to chance pops for showers across all but our southwest counties on
Sunday, with mainly just some slight chances for showers in our
northeast/east counties Sunday evening.  Temperatures will be
unseasonably cool Sunday, continuing into Monday.

Models continue to show a surface high sliding along the Gulf coast
Monday into Tuesday night, keeping our region dry for the first part
of the work week.  Winds will shift to the south Tuesday, and this
will help temperatures climb back to seasonal readings for Tuesday
into Wednesday.  On Wednesday, GFS and ECMWF show a weak cold front
moving across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  At
this point, the models indicate little to no QPF with its passage,
so kept the forecast dry with just an increase in clouds for now.
Behind the front, northwest winds will bring some cooler air into
the region, and highs Thursday will drop back to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Gusty SSW winds will continue, generally 12 to 22 kts with gusts
25 to 30+ kts. Occasional high clouds overnight. Lowering cigs
Friday, with MVFR cigs possible by afternoon across southeast
Missouri.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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