Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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303
FXUS63 KPAH 162342
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Near severe/severe convective activity developing along the
Mississippi River around 215 pm this afternoon has multiple foci
at the surface and upper levels this afternoon. At the surface,
the LAPS data showing convection developing on theta-e axis arcing
up the Mississippi river to Paducah, then working back along
I-24/I-57 in extreme southern Illinois. Aloft, the new convection
is oriented along a southwest-northeast trough axis with some
stretching and deformation ongoing at this time and some
overturning of higher theta-e air. The ESRL HRRR and HRRR high
resolution convection allowing models appear to have a good handle
on this convection, albeit 1-2 hours slower than expected.

Most of this convection will generally diurnal in nature this
evening, with some maintenance of showers in and near the trough
axis aloft, which will be renewed as another area of low pressure
aloft moves east across Missouri overnight.

As the upper low converges and congeals over the Quad State region
around daybreak, shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase
over the WFO PAH forecast area, especially during the late morning
and early afternoon hours. Differential vorticity aloft, combined
with differential surface heating and boundary layer moisture
convergence, should ensure redevelopment of multi-cell storm
clusters around the area. For now, have kept the best chances for
rain over west Kentucky, southeast Illinois, and southwest Indiana
through the evening on Thursday. As the low and the upper trough
move east-northeast, rain chances will diminish, with ridging move
into the area from the west on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Pattern will remain active in the long term. Favored a model
consensus. Should be a lull in the activity Saturday with mid level
s/wv ridging across the area. Once the ridge moves east, unsettled
southwest flow aloft and a warm sector regime Sunday will return the
chance of showers and storms. A front should enter the area Sunday
night and continue south through Monday, maintaining the chance of
convection. Little change Monday night through Wednesday, as the
front is forecast to weaken and stall across the area. This regime
is favorable for on and off convective chances. Temperatures are
forecast to remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

This is primarily a convective forecast, with VFR conditions and
light northeast winds expected outside of convection. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA will be possible at KEVV and KCGI this evening, but most
of the activity will be over southern Illinois and farther west
in southeast Missouri. Farther southeast across the region, the
atmosphere appears to be rather stable this evening. An upper-
level disturbance over northwest Arkansas this evening may
eventually spread more convection over our region late tonight or
Thursday, but confidence in timing and location preclude
mentioning in the forecasts at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DRS



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